- The story of Goalimpact
- How Goalimpact uses metrics and statistics
- A real life case study
- How can Goalimpact aid bettors?
Originally, the algorithm was developed to assess the strength of soccer teams, much like the Elo rating system in chess. Remarkably, it rated Greece as robust contenders—a prediction overlooked by many—which was validated when they clinched the championship. Motivated by this triumph, Jörg consistently applied the model to his soccer betting endeavors. Nevertheless, the model's effectiveness waned post the summer transfer window due to team roster modifications that weren't accounted for, leading to a pivotal shift from team to player ratings in the algorithm.
This new method proved superior, maintaining accurate strength assessments even with player transfers. Jörg’s betting success on subsequent tournaments speaks volumes about the efficacy of this approach.
Thus began the journey of Goalimpact.
How does Goalimpact work?
Goalimpact quantifies a player's effect on the goal differential per minute on the field, focusing solely on actual performance rather than extensive player statistics. This model opts for a holistic approach, acknowledging the soccer field as a complex network where each action is interconnected, making it challenging to isolate which specific actions lead to victory.
Much like the +/- statistic in basketball, the algorithm recognizes the ultimate objective in soccer—to win by outscoring the opponent, as famously summed up by Johan Cruyff: “To win you have to score one more goal than your opponent.” Essentially, soccer boils down to optimizing goal difference.
Hence, a player’s merit is objectively rated based on their ability to improve their team's goal difference while playing—regardless of the circumstances.
Goalimpact offers an objective measure of what makes a player "good," by factoring in the strength of opposing players, which is not considered in basketball's +/- system. This gives Goalimpact a relative value for player comparisons globally.
How does the algorithm learn?
Goalimpact's algorithm requires only basic match data such as starting lineups, goal timings, substitutions, and players' birthdates to compute player quality from a minimum of 1,000 minutes of play. The model also integrates fatigue, disciplinary actions, and home advantage into its calculations. With over a million players tracked worldwide, it leverages birthdate data to adjust for age-related bias and to forecast players' peak potential.
An example
Consider a hypothetical match where Manchester City scores against Manchester United in the 30th minute and leads until halftime. Post-substitution, United ties the game in the 60th minute, and the match ends 1-1. In such a scenario, where both teams are presumed equally skilled, Goalimpact would adjust only the ratings of players involved in the scoring, namely Casemiro and Donny van de Beek, reflecting their direct impact on the match outcome.
This example underlines that while one game might offer limited data, continuous updates refine the model, focusing solely on player quality over time.
Case study: the discovery of Alphonso Davies
A notable success story within Goalimpact is that of Alphonso Davies, whose potential was identified early on despite his modest market value of under €500,000. His trajectory to becoming a world-class player was accurately predicted by Goalimpact.
The graph of Alphonso Davies' Goalimpact ratings illustrates his average performance over time, with projections showing a steep ascent towards elite status, indicative of top-tier European league potential. For context, the world’s best players typically score above 170 in Goalimpact ratings.
How Goalimpact can aid bettors
Goalimpact’s methodology offers a realistic and unbiased prediction model. It estimates a team's overall strength from the sum of individual players’ ratings, facilitating the derivation of expected goal differences between teams. This model can significantly enhance betting strategies by providing a more precise comparison of expected outcomes versus betting odds offered by platforms like 7x7Bets.
This structured, data-driven approach ensures bettors are well-informed, leveraging objective player ratings to predict match results more accurately.
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