How confirmation bias affects your betting

 - What is information overload?

 - A phenomenon that can harm your betting

 - Have you become a victim of confirmation bias?

When was the last time you switched your bet from one team to another due to new insights? Not frequently? This might be because of "confirmation bias," a psychological trap that can negatively impact your betting decisions.

Confirmation bias occurs when we cling to our initial beliefs, ignoring new information that contradicts them. We tend to favor evidence that supports our pre-existing views while dismissing anything that challenges them. This inclination can lead us away from making the most accurate predictions.

For bettors, succumbing to confirmation bias means moving towards more subjective judgments, which is detrimental to accurately forecasting outcomes. But how can we sidestep our inherent tendency towards confirmation bias?

Information overload

The internet, especially Google, vividly illustrates confirmation bias. Consider a conspiracy theory you doubt, such as:

1. We never landed on the moon.

2. Aliens are kept in Area 51

3. 9/11 was an inside job
   

Search any of these topics, and you'll be met with countless arguments supporting these dubious theories. For instance, searches can yield articles with titles like “100% proof we never walked on the Moon” or exhaustive lists arguing for the presence of aliens at Area 51, not to mention “Facts Proving 9/11 Was An INSIDE JOB.”

Despite encountering millions of web pages, it's likely your opinion remains unchanged. This demonstrates how hard it is to alter preconceived notions, even when faced with a mountain of contrary evidence.

"We tend to favor evidence that supports our pre-existing views while dismissing anything that challenges them."

This pattern repeats in betting scenarios. Bettors often validate their beliefs with supporting data while ignoring contradicting facts. For instance, many view Brazil as a top football team, despite a win rate of just 54.3% in the 36 games leading up to the 2013 Confederations Cup.

A study relevant to betting, focusing on online stock trading, found that investors often seek information that confirms their existing beliefs about a stock. The study by Park et al., 2010, revealed that those most prone to confirmation bias tended to earn less profit.

This bias also affects how we assess our betting performance. Wanting to believe we're successful, we might remember our wins more vividly than our losses, even if reality suggests otherwise.

How to stop confirmation bias

To mitigate confirmation bias, strive to objectively consider opposing viewpoints. This task is challenging, as demonstrated by the difficulty in neutrally assessing conspiracy theories.

While absolute objectivity may be unattainable, making an effort to understand and value perspectives different from yours can enhance your betting acumen, leading to more informed and balanced decisions.

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