- Empirical evidence and intuitive data in betting
- Is handicapping the best skill in sports betting?
- Closing line value in sports betting
- Managing risk in sports betting
To gauge the efficacy and genuine aptitude in sports wagering, a more extensive volume of bets may necessitate computing a probability value (p-value) to discern the likelihood of outcomes happening by mere chance. Employing a p-value calculator with inputs like ROI%, average odds, and the volume of bets (n) could reveal the probability of achieving certain results without the influence of skill.
Statistically, a p-value under 0.05 typically signifies the rejection of the null hypothesis, suggesting a slim chance that the outcomes of sports betting were purely coincidental.
Empirical evidence and intuitive data in betting
P-values aren't indicators of a gambler's skill, yet what if certain adept sports gamblers could accurately gauge uncertainty? In my narrative, Hypnotised By Numbers, I discuss how some proficient bettors possess what's termed risk intelligence, allowing their minds to operate in a specific manner. These gamblers can instinctively execute mental iterations based on previously gathered empirical evidence and accurately predict probabilities for forthcoming events.
Such is the cognition of numerous professional sports gamblers. Empirical evidence is derived from observation and recording of particular patterns and behaviors through data or experimentation. These seasoned gamblers accumulate this data, processing it like a computer, with extensive hours dedicated to observing the sports they wager on, often focusing on specific sports and markets.
Indeed, accumulated experiences act as data, forming the basis for decisions made over time, mostly based on intuition.
Risk intelligence entails accurately estimating probabilities using intuition from past experiences. In betting, as Marco Blume of 7x7Bets once stated, there are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. For example, if a horse slows considerably uphill at Cheltenham or a UFC fighter tires in the fourth round, what size sample is necessary to predict these outcomes consistently? Should such variables be factored into the estimation of true (conditional) probability? Observing the Cheltenham horse once might suffice.
The logic behind the variables
Significant variance in genuinely random events like coin tosses necessitates large samples to normalize, yet sports betting involves many scenarios where uncertainty can be accurately quantified over smaller samples. This represents what I often term the logic behind the variables.
The secret to unlocking value lies in observing sports to identify unpriced angles in markets. By watching games, we expect a less volatile profit and loss graph that aligns more closely with our theoretical EV line.
Handicapping is the best skill to have in sports betting
In the realm of sports betting, the craftiest of handicappers often remain under wraps. The magnitude of your bets doesn't directly mirror your expertise in betting. Much like poker, where ace players frequent the low-to-mid stakes, the real prowess in sports wagering isn't quantified by the cash you gamble or gain. It boils down to outsmarting the odds, including the vig.
I'm not alluding to the closing line value, which is the true probability of all your wagers across a substantial sample size. This insight is gleaned from your enduring ROI%. The closer your forecasted Expected Value (EV) aligns with your tangible Return on Investment over time, and the higher that ROI escalates, the more pronounced your edge over the bookies and the market becomes.
Many ace bettors dabble in handicapping, with the crème de la crème devising or calculating their fair odds for markets of interest. These calculated odds result in an authentic 100% book, not the distorted bookmaker percentage padded with a margin.
The true masters in sports betting intricately analyze the sports and the betting markets to unearth their advantage and pinpoint market inefficiencies. This method is often termed a bottom-up approach to betting.
Understanding Closing Line Value in Sports Betting
Closing Line Value (CLV) offers another perspective on assessing performance and skill in sports betting. However, its efficiency varies across sports and markets. Ideally, we aim for a Return on Investment that mirrors our anticipated or theoretical EV across a vast number of bets. Achieving a 10% ROI that matches our theoretical EV is preferable over a 5% ROI paired with a 15% CLV.
Is the closing line value effective? It's contingent on the sport and the market. To compute Closing Line Value, we adopt this straightforward equation from Hypnotised By Numbers:
((Decimal odds taken - closing odds)/closing odds) x 100
Emerging as an alternate metric to gauge a perceived long-term advantage, CLV is predominantly utilized by "Steam Chasers" or advocates of the top-down betting approach. Software that juxtaposes lines from various sportsbooks furnishes data-centric bettors with advantages, sans deep sports knowledge.
This concept isn't novel – it's been a staple in European betting circuits following the advent of odds comparison platforms and Betfair. CLV is deemed valuable for tracking performance, especially in popular and liquid markets.
Averaging on the favorable side of CLV is desirable in most markets over the long haul, yet CLV and EV don't always align. Upon amassing a broad bet portfolio, if your actual ROI mirrors your predicted EV, that stands as the prime indicator of genuine betting acumen.
Bettors focused on prop bets, derivatives, or niche markets may not always capture significant CLV, or if they do, it might stem from easily influenced lines, sometimes by their own betting activity.
Smarter Betting Insights
Accuracy in estimating true odds diminishes the need for large samples to reveal your true betting skill, provided the variables and parameters you consider remain constant. "Uncertainty" in betting can often be quantified to some extent.
For those engaging with longer-odds markets, leveling out variance takes time. However, several strategies can tilt the odds in our favor as bettors:
Implementing an efficient risk management and staking strategy
Enhancing our discipline
Focusing on lower odds to mitigate variance
Line shopping
Expanding our network and scaling up
Selecting games wisely in sports betting
Recording our bets and identifying odd patterns in spreadsheets or game variables
Placing a high volume of value bets to reduce volatility and variance
Risk Management in Sports Betting
Securing a consistent edge against the odds is just half the battle. Risk management forms the other critical aspect, with Kelly staking serving as a foundational strategy. Starting with 30% Kelly offers a robust basis. The Kelly formula tempers the betting risk, suggesting an optimal stake size relative to our bankroll to leverage the perceived bet value maximally.
The Kelly Formula is outlined as follows: (Adjust to 30% of F post-calculation) F* = (bp-q /b), where:
F is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager
b represents the net odds received on the bet ("b” to 1 - for decimals, 2.50 equals 1.5 to 1)
p is the winning probability
q is the losing probability, 1–p
Final Reflections on Performance and True Skill in Sports Betting
Return on Investment embodies the most authentic metric for assessing betting skill. If our ROI% aligns with our Expected Value over a significant number of bets and there's a valid rationale for the odds being off, then our performance likely stems from skill.
Our ability to outdo the odds stands as the paramount indicator of our betting acumen. Unlike casino or other chance games, uncertainty in sports betting can usually be quantified to a degree.
Consistently placing bets with positive expectations leads to long-term victories, provided an efficient staking plan and bankroll management strategy are in place. Allowing a margin for error in your tissue pricing by setting a threshold regarding theoretical EV can be beneficial.
For instance, if deeming something a 2.000 fair price, you might opt for no less than 2.200, equating to a 10% EV threshold, granting you that leeway.
Now you know how to measure performance and true skill in sports betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!
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