- How likely is a run of profitable bettings?
- How the margin affects your returns
- Identify the difference between luck & skill
Is Short-Term Betting Success Always Reliable?
The dynamics between a bookmaker and bettor pivot on odds established by the former and the bettor's interpretation of its accuracy.
For instance, let's consider a fair coin toss. The expectation for either heads or tails from a single toss is equal, with implied odds of 0.5, equating to a fair price of 2.0.
However, for profitability, a bookmaker typically offers shorter odds than 2.0. For example, odds of 1.87 for both outcomes would imply a probability of 0.535 for each.
The margin, which calculates betting margins, derives from the sum of implied probabilities. In the above example, this totals 1.07, typically quoted as a 7% margin.
How Likely is a run of profitable bets?
A low-margin bookmaker, like 7x7Bets, is preferable as it's more likely to offer value betting opportunities, especially in sports markets where odds are influenced by various factors.
Assessing the Likelihood of Profitable Streaks
Betting with a low-margin book is the initial step towards profitability. The most evident sign of passing the value test is a profitable yield.
But bettors should evaluate the likelihood of a series of bets resulting in profit or loss based on implied true probabilities.
Understanding how the margin influences returns is crucial. For example, with a margin of 7%, five wins from ten bets would result in a net loss.
Margin's Impact on Returns
The importance of understanding the bookmaker's margin is illustrated by its effect on returns. If each event were priced at 1.95, with a 2.5% margin, the losses from picking five winners out of ten bets would decrease.
To turn a profit from such poor value wagers, six or more successes are necessary. With nearly a 0.21 probability of exactly six wins in ten trials, a profit can be made.
Significance of Margin Awareness
Understanding margins is crucial. Although individual wagers may be poorly valued, there's a chance that six or more wins will occur in ten bets, yielding profit.
Differentiating Luck from Skill through Records
Maintaining records of your estimated true probability of success against the bookmaker's implied probability is essential.
Comparing these values enables spreadsheet simulations to evaluate the role of luck and skill in your current yield. A knowledgeable bettor assesses outcomes probabilistically, considering both individual results and overall profit or loss from a series of bets.
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