- Why do bookmakers move lines?
- What is reverse line movement?
- The pitfalls of relying on reverse line movement
Tracking line movements offers a quick glimpse into the market's behavior and the reasoning behind bookmakers' odds adjustments is insightful for bettors. Nonetheless, it's a common error to rely solely on line movements for betting decisions. Continue reading to discover the reasons behind this.
Why do bookmakers move lines?
Bookmakers set odds for sports events hoping to draw balanced betting action on both sides, thereby securing a profit through a margin on the odds. Should there be disproportionate betting on one side, they're likely to tweak the odds (by making one side more appealing and the other less so) aiming to level the betting field and mitigate their risk.
The source of the bets, not merely the volume, is critical. Bookmakers closely monitor wagers from well-informed bettors, known as "sharps", in their market analysis and odds adjustment decisions.
Betting percentages reflect the count of bets per side, not the total staked money. For example, a bet of $100,000 from a generally unsuccessful bettor on a Premier League game might not prompt odds changes due to the bookmaker's willingness to risk the bettor's incorrect prediction.
Conversely, a $5,000 wager by a consistently successful NFL market bettor could lead to odds adjustments based on this insight.
Distinctively, we don't impose restrictions or close the accounts of successful bettors. We utilize such insights to shape our odds, offering low margins and accommodating high-stake bets as a result.
What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement (RLM) occurs when odds move against the betting percentages - where most bets favor one side, yet the line shifts oppositely.
This phenomenon underscores that betting percentages are based on bet counts, not the total money bet.
The key to leveraging RLM in betting strategies is identifying the money distribution and discerning the preference of the more knowledgeable bettors.
While the average bettors' contributions are significant, solely relying on line movement to pick the 'right side' is impractical.
Consider the hypothetical RLM example of the Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) versus the Green Bay Packers (+7) in an NFL match. The initial line doesn't predict a Steelers' seven-point win but aims for balanced betting.
If 75% of bets favored Pittsburgh, logically, the line might shift to encourage betting on the Packers. An RLM scenario would see the Packers' line improving (to +6, perhaps), suggesting sharps favor Green Bay, despite the simplistic view of such a line adjustment.
The bookmaker's line move might be influenced by various factors, including new game-relevant information (injuries, weather changes).
The pitfalls of relying on reverse line movement
Betting percentage data is publicly accessible online, allowing tracking of RLM's predictive value regarding outcomes. However, the strategies sold based on this data, often lack transparency and overpromise returns.
For bettors subscribing to such services, the cost may significantly eat into their already slim long-term betting profit margins.
Why traditional handicapping is still your best bet
In conclusion, betting based only on line movements is flawed. Aligning with the influential bettors can be advantageous, but relying on paid RLM alerts is not the solution.
Employing traditional handicapping techniques and considering various factors remains the most reliable method to outperform the closing line and succeed in sports betting.
Now you know the basics of reverse line movement. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!
Kommentare