- MEASURING SURPRISES AHEAD OF THE PREMIER LEAGUE WEEKEND
- Calculating the Brier Score method
- Teams with high Brier Score
- Can Klopp turn the tide?
With West Ham at one end of the spectrum, and Liverpool and Chelsea at the opposite, this piece evaluates the surprise element of each EPL squad by employing a method typically used for assessing the precision of meteorological forecasts. The current standings in the Premiership present a few unforeseen outcomes – Leicester securing the third spot, West Ham breaking into the top six, and Chelsea being found further down the table, necessitating a scroll.
Odds from betting markets are among the most reliable predictors of outcomes, particularly for those who subscribe to the theory of efficient markets. Consequently, teams whose performances diverge from these predictions are categorized as either exceeding or falling short of expectations.
To gauge the degree of variance for each team against the betting odds, we apply the Brier Score to each team. Introduced in 1950, the Brier Score evaluates the accuracy of weather forecasts.
Calculating the Brier Score method
Given that the combined probabilities inferred from betting odds exceed 100%, it's essential to first normalize the odds to compute each match's outcome probabilities.
The Brier Score for a given match is calculated by summing the squared differences between the predicted probabilities and the actual outcomes. Consider the Liverpool vs Crystal Palace match on November 8th, where the odds suggested a 58.3% likelihood for a Liverpool victory and a 24.5% chance for a draw. The match ended in a Crystal Palace victory, which had been deemed only a 17.1% likelihood.
The projected probabilities for a Win:Draw:Loss were 0.583:0.245:0.171, with the actual result being 0:0:1, representing the real outcome. The differences are 0.583:0.245:0.829, leading to squared differences sum of 0.5832 + 0.2452 + 0.8292 = 1.0875, marking the Brier Score for this particular match.
Brier scores can vary from 0, indicating a perfect prediction with a 100% chance of a single outcome, to 2, for a guaranteed outcome that fails to materialize.
Random guessing, attributing equal probability to a home win, draw, or away win, results in a Brier score of 0.667, regardless of the actual result.
The ensuing table delineates the Brier Score for each Premiership team. Notably, the statistics validate some unexpected performances: Chelsea, Liverpool, and West Ham have not met expectations, while Arsenal and Manchester City continue as usual.
The unpredictability of football, which fuels its charm, inspires fans, and complicates betting strategies, is precisely what makes the sport so appealing. Utilizing a verification tool like the Brier Score offers bettors a methodical perspective on the current league dynamics.
Yet, relying solely on this metric overlooks the inherent unpredictability of football, a sport deeply influenced by human elements – from the players to the coaches and the spectators.
Teams with high Brier Score
The dramatic downturn of a dominant Chelsea, merely months after an easy league victory, was unforeseen. Predicting such occurrences is challenging, despite familiarity with the unpredictable nature of human behavior.
This human element is what transforms a group of individuals into a cohesive unit, a quality seemingly missing from Chelsea this season, amid rumors of internal discord. Conversely, the unexpected success of Leicester and West Ham was equally unpredictable.
Yearly, a mid-tier team often outperforms expectations. Slaven Bilic's impactful management has played a crucial role in West Ham's assertive performances away from home. While hindsight makes this observation obvious, foresight requires acknowledging the human element's significance.
Observing West Ham under Bilic reveals a distinct defensive strategy compared to smaller Premier League clubs. Instead of strictly defensive play, Bilic's team defends deeply yet attacks aggressively, capitalizing on opportunities. Claudio Ranieri employs a similar approach at Leicester.
Can Klopp turn the tide?
The question remains if Liverpool's new managerial appointment will stabilize their betting odds. Since Klopp's arrival, Liverpool's Brier Score has increased by 0.887, influenced by unexpected outcomes in several matches (a home loss to Crystal Palace, draws against Tottenham, and a victory over Chelsea).
His debut at home against Southampton concluded in a draw, despite being highly improbable. Liverpool, despite assembling an expensive roster, has consistently underperformed, barring the near-championship season with Luis Suarez.
Liverpool demonstrates the potential to defeat any team on their best day and the vulnerability to lose to any opponent on an off day. Whether Klopp can increase the frequency of 'good days' and make Liverpool a more predictable bet remains to be seen.
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