- What is vig (vigorish bettin) and how is it defined?
- Betting markets: how do we beat the vig?
- Finding the edge and overcoming commission in betting
- What is conditional probability?
Understanding Vigorish in Betting
Vigorish, or vig for short, is essentially the commission that bookies earn from bets. It represents the margin that's included in betting markets. For bettors in India, overcoming the vig isn't just about outsmarting other market players; it's also about finding those bets where the odds are in your favor enough to outweigh the bookmaker's commission.
Beating the Vigorish: Strategies for Success
To surpass the vigorish in betting arenas, it’s crucial to scout for factors and aspects not yet considered in the odds. Creating your own odds or keeping an eye on odds movement due to influential bettors or money flows can be advantageous. The latter approach is known as "Steam Chasing," a term quite familiar to seasoned bettors.
The Construction of Betting Odds
In modern betting landscapes, odds are often the product of sophisticated mathematical models, drawing heavily on frequentist probabilities and data analytics. However, what's typically overlooked in market pricing is the concept of conditional probability—our secret weapon as value-focused bettors.
The Role of Conditional Probability
Conditional probability helps estimate the likelihood of an event occurring, considering another related event has already happened. Bookies, constrained by time and resources, rarely adjust odds based on this Bayesian inference, which takes into account such related event impacts.
Balancing the Bookmaker's Advantage
Bookmakers aim to outperform the average punter, and they start with an advantage thanks to the vigorish. However, understanding and utilizing principles such as heuristics can level the playing field for bettors. This approach to pricing benefits both the bookie and the bettor, a phenomenon I like to call the Blackbox Paradox.
The Mechanics of Vig in Betting
In the betting world, vig is a tool for profit and risk management, ensuring bookies stay in the green. A standard method for incorporating vig into a balanced two-way market is to adjust the odds to 10/11 for each option.
Calculating the Vigorish
To compute the implied probability and thus the vigorish, one can use the formula:
Implied Probability=11/21=0.524
0.524×100=52.4%0.524×100=52.4%
For both sides of a bet, this totals to 104.8%, with the excess 4.8% representing the vigorish.
Vig Percentage Breakdown
To find the exact vig percentage, the formula is:
1−(1/overround)×100
Using the previously mentioned example:
1–(1/104.8)×100=4.58%
Hence, the bookmaker's theoretical commission or vig from that market stands at 4.58%.
Finding Edges Over the Commission: The Inside Track
To gain an upper hand in defeating the commission, one must engage in logical thinking first and foremost. Take football, for example, where the live odds calculated through time decay fail to account for match-specific live factors.
In the world of golf betting, the impact of sudden weather shifts on the game is often overlooked by in-play betting algorithms. This oversight can lead to skewed probabilities when, say, adverse weather conditions or a particularly long course puts a significant portion of the players at a disadvantage, without the odds reflecting these changes.
Golf's place markets are derived from outright odds, yet a player with odds of 100.000 to win doesn't automatically stand at 10.000 for a top-10 finish or 5.000 for a top-20 finish. It's essential to weigh factors such as a player's current form or suitability for the course in question.
"Hypnotised by Numbers" delves into a theoretical instance in golf betting, highlighting the average 50% hole out rate from eight feet for top-tier golfers. This percentage can shift based on the golfer's proficiency in putting, the type of grass, and the green's slope and speed. By selectively betting on proficient putters and considering the greens' conditions, it's feasible to surpass the odds.
For instance, targeting strong putters on 11-12 stimpmeter greens could boost the hole out rate from eight feet to close to 60%, versus the average 50%. This strategic selectivity in sports betting can yield a 60% win rate on a 10/11 bet, even after the vigorish, translating to a 14% long-term return on investment on an otherwise even-money bet.
The book highlights how, in prop betting markets, while the bookies generally prevail over the average bettor, a minority of savvy bettors can also come out ahead by identifying and leveraging mispriced odds, given the nuances of the sports aren't always fully incorporated into the betting markets.
Through the lens of "Hypnotised By Numbers," we examine Denzel Dumfries's performance for the Netherlands in Euro 2020, initially pegged at 10/1 to score at any time. His role, however, leaned more towards a forward, evidenced by his scoring in consecutive matches, underscoring the value of applying conditional probability in soccer prop betting.
Beating the Vigorish with Conditional Probability
Odds represent implied probabilities, with the key word being "implied." The market's efficiency is questionable, as it largely relies on identical datasets that overlook situational nuances. The traditional models and algorithms are grounded in frequentist statistics, but by applying conditional probability, we can significantly outmaneuver them, thus overcoming the vigorish.
Successful sports betting hinges on grasping the core mathematics of the markets and employing logical strategies to outwit them, rather than mirroring the odds compilers' methodologies and data. The Dunning-Kruger Effect and the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggest market invincibility, but the reality is more nuanced. With odds fluctuating based on incoming bets, what we're witnessing is Bayesian Inference at play. By leveraging conditional probability in the sports betting markets, we refine our estimates of true prices, discovering valuable opportunities. The differentiation between winning and losing bets ultimately boils down to the application of logical reasoning.
Now you know how the vigorish betting works and how to beat the vigorish with conditional probability in sports betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!
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