- Initial odds setting
- Understanding positive expected value
- The importance of beating the closing odds
- The example of Chelsea
Identifying the distinction between winners and losers in betting often boils down to the odds one secures when placing their bet versus the closing line. Regularly securing odds that outperform the closing odds is a significant indicator of potential long-term profit.
Initial Odds Setting
At the onset, when 7x7Bets sets odds for an upcoming match, these initial figures are meticulously crafted based on statistical analyses of past performances and other crucial data like player injuries.
As the betting market opens, punters select bets they perceive as value, prompting 7x7Bets to adjust odds continuously to keep a balanced book and mitigate one-sided risk.
The odds just before a match kicks off, known as the closing line, incorporate all updates, insights, and market dynamics, representing the most efficient market prediction.
Understanding positive expected value
Removing the element of luck from sports betting to secure long-term wins requires recognizing bets with a positive expected value—wagers more likely to win than the odds suggest. For further insights, delve into our article on calculating expected value in sports betting.
In the realm of probability, expected value signifies the long-term average outcome of repeated experiments. Consider a coin toss where each outcome (heads or tails) has a 50% chance. A positive expected value bet could be presented as follows:
Odds for Heads: 2.10
Odds for Tails: 1.80
For every €10 bet on heads, the expected profit is €0.50:
(amount of bet) x [(odds for heads -1) x (probability for heads) – 1 x (probability of tails)] =
€10 x [(2.10 – 1) x 0.5 – 1 x 0.5 = €10 x (1.10 x 0.5 –0.50) = €0.50
Since the expected value is a positive number, betting on this market would be profitable in the long run, despite the fact that there is a 50% probability of losing in a single coin toss. The goal, therefore, is not to win every bet, but to make decisions that have positive expected value.
Efficient market theory
In betting, unlike the clear probabilities in a coin toss, odds fluctuate up to the match's commencement, raising the question: Which odds more accurately forecast outcomes?
The efficient market hypothesis posits that closing odds generally offer a more precise probability prediction than opening odds.
"The closing odds generally offer a more accurate prediction of the true odds," according to the efficient market hypothesis, a principle also applied in financial markets, implying that in a competitive environment, prices at any moment reflect the true value, given that all information is publicly accessible.
In sports betting, this means market odds adjustments reflect all available information, preventing long-term biases in bet outcomes.
Should bettors spot odds that seem off (like overly generous odds on an underdog), they'll likely exploit this, causing odds to shift until no discrepancy remains. Since opening odds might not account for all market data, their adjustments lead to closing odds that more accurately reflect event probabilities.
The importance of beating the closing odds
For proficient bettors, the concern often lies in distinguishing genuine skill from mere luck. Monitoring your success against the closing line offers a tangible measure to separate strategic success from random chance. Consistently beating the closing line indicates probable long-term gains.
The example of Chelsea
During Chelsea's challenging 2015/16 Premier League run, we analyzed the returns for a rolling €10 bet on each of Chelsea’s league losses that season.
The fluctuation between the opening and closing odds, especially against Chelsea, showcases sharp money movements in most games:
Chelsea’s opponent | Opening odds | Closing odds |
Man City (A) | 2.25 | 2.01 |
Crystal Palace | 9.25 | 10.5 |
Everton | 4.54 | 3.56 |
Southampton | 6.5 | 4.93 |
West Ham | 4.39 | 4.26 |
Liverpool | 4.78 | 3.91 |
Stoke | 4.02 | 4.53 |
A €10 multiple on our closing lines would pay €279,490.
A €10 multiple on our opening lines would pay €518,098.
Surpassing the closing line doesn’t guarantee individual bet profitability, but as 7x7Bets is recognized among the sharpest bookmakers, regularly outperforming our closing line is a prime indicator of betting prowess. Plus, winners are always welcome to continue betting with us, regardless of their success level.
Now you know what distinguishes winning from losing bettors. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!
Comments