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- How to convert a risk-free bet? - Optimal hedging betting strategy - Betting strategies compared - Betting stats Many leisurely sportsbooks provide promotions for new users, dangling a "risk-free" bet of a hefty sum, say $500. However, the fine print reveals a catch: if your first bet flops, they compensate you with a "free bet" matching your stake. Upon securing the free bet, you're entitled to the profits should you win, yet the initial bet's face value remains with them. So, the offer isn't entirely "risk-free," but it does significantly lower your risk, essentially offering free cash. The challenge lies in maximizing the free money from this offer. Maximizing Expected Value: Is Taking the Risk Justified? You might reckon that chasing the highest expected value (EV) is the way to amplify your free cash. After all, EV calculates the gamble's worth across all potential outcomes. The best strategy, by this logic, would be to go for a long shot, likely to lose, since winning the initial bet provides no benefit from the promotion. While targeting extreme longshots might spike your EV, ensuring a better shot at the promotional free bet, it comes with heightened risk. Betting $500 on a longshot with 4.600 odds means winning roughly 20% of the time, yet it secures a substantial free bet if you lose. Placing the free bet on a similar line gives another shot at netting $1,300. This approach also maximizes your free bet's EV, but you often risk losing as there's a two-thirds chance of losing both bets and the initial $500. Yet, wagering on a heavy favorite might be more prudent, especially for novices with a smaller bankroll, say $1,000. This strategy, betting on a favorite at 1.500 odds, offers a 63% chance of winning $250 on your $500 risk-free bet, minimizing the risk of depleting your bankroll significantly. However, aiming for the free bet on a loss is where the real value lies, and playing it safe might mean missing out on significant value. Optimal Hedging: Striking the Perfect Balance Is there a strategy that balances maximizing EV and minimizing risk? Indeed, it's called optimal hedging. Hedging involves betting on all outcomes to secure a guaranteed return, albeit at a cost due to the sportsbook's margin. For instance, if Team A has 4.600 odds to win, and considering a typical 5% bookmaker margin, the odds for Team B would be around 1.204. The fair line is in between, but hedging at 1.204 won't maximize your EV. Betting with a low-margin sportsbook like 7x7Bets, offering 1.238 odds, trims the EV loss. However, if profit maximization is the goal, considering the risk appetite is crucial. This requires moving beyond simple EV calculations to employing Theoretical Kelly Optimization (TKO) for identifying the strategy that enhances your bankroll's expected growth (EG) percentage. This nuanced strategy is the essence of the Kelly Criterion, adapted for complex scenarios involving hedged bets. Below is a comparison of potential outcomes with three strategies, showing the chances of winning your initial bet, losing it and then winning your free bet, or losing both. It also highlights the average profit, or EV. Betting on 1.500 favorites yields the lowest EV ($34 on average) but with less variance compared to longshots. The highest EV ($271) comes from not hedging on longshots, but hedging sacrifices only about $45 in EV—and just $17 when betting with 7x7Bets. So, if Team B wins, leveraging the entire payout on another longshot with your free bet minimizes your losses to $233 instead of $500, a substantial difference for those starting with $1,000. Testing risk-free betting strategies Determining the best strategy for maximizing the median long-term bankroll in risk-free betting involves practical experimentation or simulation. If sportsbooks allowed repetitive use of the same promotion, a direct comparison of strategies through multiple iterations or a Monte Carlo simulation could reveal the most profitable approach. The highest expected value (EV) of $271 comes from betting on longshots without hedging. Adjusting the promotion rules to allow betting 50% of the current bankroll, regardless of its size, ensures that a bettor never goes completely bankrupt, providing a chance for recovery if a strategy proves superior. A simulation conducted over numerous iterations showcases the variability of outcomes across strategies. One specific run for the first 100 trials, displayed on a logarithmic scale to accentuate differences, indicated that betting on favorites consistently could transform a $1,000 bankroll into approximately $4,000 without entering the loss zone. However, this outcome represents an unusually favorable scenario for that strategy, as the marginal benefit of each bet actually results in a negative expected growth (EG). Conversely, betting on longshots without hedging led to significant bankroll volatility, resembling the erratic nature of a basketball during an intense dribbling session, ultimately depleting the bankroll to less than $10. This drastic decline highlights the risk of over-betting, even with a significant edge. Reducing the bet size could mitigate the risk of ruin but at the expense of diminishing the theoretical EV of $271, achievable only with a $500 initial bet. However, by sacrificing a small portion of EV through strategic hedging on a platform like 7x7Bets, the losses during downturns are significantly lessened, ultimately leading to substantial profits. This approach underscores the viability of hedging as a strategy, particularly when applied with a large bankroll and through a sportsbook offering competitive odds and welcoming to all bettors. With a $10,000 bankroll, betting on 4.600 odds without hedging maximizes the EG, leveraging a substantial mathematical advantage with minimal risk. Yet, a hedging strategy that involves placing a $1,575 bet on the favorite at 7x7Bets, followed by a $1,450 hedge at 1.238 odds if the initial bet wins, also achieves a 2.25% EG on the bankroll, irrespective of the outcome. This hedged approach offers a balanced strategy, combining risk management with profit maximization, ultimately aligning with bettors' preferences at higher bankroll levels. Now you know the risk-free betting strategies for new bettors. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. 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- How X.com can help inform betting - Get an edge over the bookmaker - The best betting X.com accounts to follow Joseph Buchdahl (@12Xpert) Joseph Buchdahl, one of 7x7Bets' contributors, has built a following of serious bettors on X.com. An experienced sports betting analyst, Joseph really is a must-follow for anyone who wants to expand their betting knowledge. In addition to sharing the articles he’s written for 7x7Bets, Joseph will also often share his well-informed opinion on betting-related debates. He also runs the football-data.co.uk website where you’ll find a wealth of data to help improve your soccer betting. Sports bettors this account appeals to = All sports David Purdum (@DavidPurdum) A feature writer for ESPN Chalk, David Purdum is a great follow to keep your timeline up-to-date with the latest betting news across various sports. Anyone looking for interesting stories in the world of betting should look no further than David. In addition to interesting snippets from bookmakers that give a glimpse into the industry, @DavidPurdum is also usually one of the first to break important news. Stating himself “I am not good at gambling”, you shouldn’t hope for a stream of winning picks from David (you’ll struggle to find that anywhere on X.com). Instead, utilise the information he provides to keep up-to-date with all things betting. Sports bettors this account appeals to = All sports Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) One half of the Deep Dive podcast, the "Whale Capper" himself Drew Dinsick is another great follow that will enhance your betting knowledge. Specialising in handicapping on the NFL and NBA, Drew is another guest to have featured on the 7x7Bets podcast. A constant stream of valuable insight and great content means there is always something to grab your attention on the @whale_capper feed. Even in the downtime of his main sport coverage, Drew offers up plenty of general betting insight to help those interested in all manner of sports. Sports bettors this account appeals to = NFL, NBA and general betting Infogol (@InfogolApp) The emergence of expected goals as a valuable metric in soccer betting analysis has been well documented and widespread across social media. However, the account you need to follow that uses this metric to provide enlightening analysis on Europe’s top soccer leagues is Infogol. In addition to game-by-game shot maps, Infogol also features on 7x7Bets' Premier League Insights podcast and publishes various articles for those looking to find an edge in the soccer betting markets. Sports bettors this account appeals to = Soccer Dan Weston (@SAAdvantage) When it comes to tennis betting, Dan Weston is a must-follow. Owner of the excellent Tennis Ratings website, author, sports analyst, columnist, and regular guest on the 7x7Bets podcast, Dan shares unique and valuable betting insight on tennis throughout the year. Delivering detailed statistics on matches, players, and tournaments – following Dan will serve to help you improve your tennis betting. Sports bettors this account appeals to = Tennis Statmuse (@Statmuse) For those looking for aesthetically pleasing and easy to digest NBA statistics, Statmuse is the account for you. Their unique artwork alone makes this a great follow for your timeline, with the addition of their intriguing and insightful statistics helping to add additional layers to your analysis. Sports bettors this account appeals to = Basketball Statcast (@statcast) Statcast specialises in in-play data for Baseball: How hard a hit was pitched, at what angle, how far the fielder had to go to get the ball, at what speed, and at what route efficiency; the list goes on. Ultimately, if you want to know about in-play performance, Statcast can tell you. Sports bettors this account appeals to = Baseball Evolving Hockey (@EvolvingHockey) Home to some of the most advanced NHL statistics on the web, let alone social media, Evolving Hockey offers hockey bettors every tool they could possibly need to make informed betting decisions. Offering detailed live game analysis and post-game breakdowns, Evolving Hockey will help even the most advanced NHL bettors. Sports bettors this account appeals to = Ice Hockey Datagolf (@Datagolf) When it comes to betting on golf, it’s imperative you have Datagolf amongst your following list. They provide highly sophisticated and insightful statistics that are sure to highly inform and improve your golf betting moving forward. In addition to in-depth analysis and useful explanations into how their model works, Datagolf also provide great event previews to help bettors make those all important decisions ahead of golf events. Sports bettors this account appeals to = Golf Honourable Mentions @adamchernoff – The man to follow for NFL betting, Adam has featured on The Opening Line podcast at 7x7Bets, written numerous betting articles, is the voice of The Simple Handicap, and is an all-round well informed bettor that will be a great follow. @PlusEVAnalytics – Covering a range of sports from the NFL, MLB, NHL and many others, actuary and knowledgeable bettor Plus EV Analytics is another person who offers a lot to bettors on X.com. He has also featured on 7x7Bets' Serious About Betting podcast, contributed articles to 7x7Bets' Betting Resources and now regularly posts great articles on his own blog. @Gingfacekillah - Statistical Sports Models in Excel author, and data science and law student, Andrew Mack is another great account to follow that covers all the major sports. In addition to showing bettors how to approach uncertainty and find value in betting markets, Andrew is always on hand to offer advice and help bettors along on their journey. Now you know who to follow on X.com. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- What is probability theory and Bayesian inference how does it work? - How does Bayes Theorem work in practice? - Conditional probability in soccer betting - Bayesian inference in gambling In the early 2000s, students delving into Probability Theory were introduced to the notion of "Inverse probability". Fast forward to today, this concept is more commonly referred to as Bayesian probability among scholars. Bayesian probability is articulated as a perspective where probability does not merely signify the occurrence frequency of an event but embodies a level of personal conviction or understanding regarding a matter. Bayesian inference is a statistical inference approach that employs Bayes' theorem to refine the probability of a hypothesis with the advent of additional evidence or information. Simply put, Inverse probability offers a more rational methodology within the scope of probability theory. The term Inverse probability is now considered archaic, previously used to denote the probability distribution of a variable that is not observed. Thus, Bayesian inference in gambling merges logical-mathematical analysis, subjective probability, and qualitative assessment aiming to gain a competitive advantage. This inference is rooted in the Bayes Theorem, established by Thomas Bayes, which addresses conditional probability, enabling us to tackle the sports betting markets or any investment venture with it. Probability theory in the sports betting markets Instinctively, we're all trying to harness probability theory within the sports betting domain to identify a competitive edge. The more astute bettors consciously apply these principles, while the pinnacle oddsmakers incorporate complex conditional probability concepts for the most precise market pricing, considering numerous variables. Consider the following example from my publication "Hypnotised by Numbers," illustrating the application of conditional probability and Bayes Theorem in deriving precise soccer betting probabilities. Before diving into that, however… What is the Bayes Theorem? P(A | B) = P(B | A) *P(A) / P(B) The Bayes Theorem is a formula that calculates conditional probability, stating: the probability of A happening, given B, is equal to the probability of B happening, given A, times the probability of A, all divided by the probability of B. How can we apply conditional probability in soccer betting? In the 2021-22 Premier League season, Liverpool showcased dominance, narrowly missing the championship to Manchester City, with star player Mohamed Salah in exceptional form. Some pivotal stats include: Liverpool secured victories in 74% of their 2021 EPL matches (A). Salah scored in approximately 55% of matches when adjusted for minutes played and starts (B). Across an adequate sample size for this period, Salah scored in 60% of Liverpool's winning matches (B|A). What, then, was the likelihood of Liverpool winning assuming Salah scores? Utilizing the Bayes Theorem formula or a Bayes calculator like the one available on Sharp Sports Bettors, we find the probability of Liverpool winning with Salah scoring adjusts to an average of 80.72%. P (A|B) = 60*74 / 55 -> P (A|B) = 4,440 / 55 -> P(A|B) = 80.72% However, in the betting markets, odds compilation depends on the specific market and may not always accurately reflect the nuances, such as Salah's impact, considering each selection individually. The odds largely rely on "big data" or what's known as Frequentist probabilities. Employing Bayesian reasoning with small data samples against these big data averages can give us an upper hand in sports betting markets, favoring the mean over the median and leveraging conditional probability. “Big data contains greater variety in larger volumes and with more velocity. Put simply, big data is larger, more complex data sets, especially from new data sources.” Marco Blume, ex-Trading Director at 7x7Bets, emphasized the importance of qualitative analysis and Bayesian-style thinking in data science and pricing at 7x7Bets. Blume, in a podcast, discussed dealing with "known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns" in reference to uncertainty in betting markets, especially with small samples and events lacking solid data. He explained how Bayesian inference could be utilized to estimate accurate probabilities. Betting markets are primarily based on frequentist probabilities and mathematical heuristics. Unlike the Frequentist approach, which does not estimate probabilities of unknown events, Bayesian methodology in market pricing incorporates empirical observations and hypothesis testing to establish an efficient prior price. Frequentist methods rely on data analysis implied probabilities in odds compilation, while true probabilities in sports betting remain uncertain, as opposed to fixed variables in games like poker, roulette, or blackjack with multiple decks. Enrico Fermi, a physicist, applied qualitative analysis and subjective judgment to estimate solutions to questions whose answers might not be intuitively obvious or documented. This analytical approach could be employed in pricing sports betting markets, like the Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather fight, where prior data was absent. The Monty Hall Puzzle You've probably encountered the tale of Marilyn vos Savant—deemed the most brilliant woman at the time—when she correctly solved a conditional probability puzzle in her column, only to face backlash from thousands, including PhD-holding mathematicians. This puzzle later earned fame as the Monty Hall problem. The Monty Hall problem illustrates the complexity of conditional probability, showcasing how a single piece of crucial information can significantly alter probabilities. The key "conditional" here is the game show host's knowledge of what's behind each door, a fact that challenges many of the world's brightest minds. When it comes to pricing markets based on such principles, soft bookmakers often overlook conditional or subjective variables. This oversight presents a strategic opportunity to outmaneuver betting markets and the inherent margins, a topic we'll delve into in a subsequent piece. Despite the perceived efficiency of crowd wisdom and betting exchange markets at close—provided they're liquid—flaws exist due to the foundational concepts these markets neglect. "It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong" - John Maynard Keynes Rock-Paper-Scissors Theory Consider the Rock-Paper-Scissors game, where both you and your opponent randomly choose each option one-third of the time. Theoretically, this should result in a break-even outcome over time. However, if you detect a pattern in your opponent's "random" choices, such as choosing Rock every fifth turn, you can exploit this pattern for a significant advantage. If you adjust your strategy based on this observation, choosing Paper every fifth round to counter their Rock, your expected positive return jumps to around 60/40, equating to a 20% investment return, despite both parties maintaining a one-third selection rate overall. Applying Probability Concepts at the Poker Table The same principle applies in poker. Suppose you bluff 30% of the time on certain river boards, adhering to a game theory optimal (GTO) strategy. An opponent who notices a tell—say, your nose twitches during those bluff attempts—gains a substantial expected value (EV) by accurately calling or folding against your river bets in each scenario. Which Poker Hand is Superior? Presenting a Bayesian and a Frequentist with the question of which poker hand is superior—A8 off-suit versus A4 suited—yields different perspectives. The Frequentist approach, based on extensive simulations, shows A8 winning 51% of the time, A4 suited 29%, with a 20% chance of a tie. However, the Bayesian viewpoint favors A4 suited due to its playability and flexibility, allowing for easier escapes from dominated situations and opportunities for flush and straight draws, enabling creative play and semi-bluffs. Skilled players find A4 suited-type hands more profitable than A8 off-suit, often avoiding mid-aces in favor of aggressively playing low wheel suited aces, leading to winning large pots or minimizing losses, contrasting with A8's smaller wins or potential for trouble, despite its technical superiority. Probability Theory in Betting and Gambling: A Summary "There are few who did not learn the probabilistic theory and probabilistic thinking, born to be the one who always acts on probability outcomes" - Catherine Wang Probability quantifies the chance of an event's occurrence. It's foundational to sports betting and gambling, enabling the estimation of different outcomes' likelihoods through logical and mathematical reasoning. Conditional probability, the likelihood of an event occurring given another influencing event has already happened, is crucial for optimizing strategies across sports betting, gambling, and investment, reflecting the essence of probabilistic thinking in decision-making. Now you know what is the probability theory and Bayesian inference in gambling. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Soccer handicap betting explained - The three types of asian handicap Soccer Handicap Betting Explained In the realm of competitive soccer, it's common to see disparities in the quality perceived between two competing teams. These differences stem from a variety of factors, including but not limited to, historical success, financial support, and current conditions such as home advantage or key player availability. The world of soccer betting takes these variables into account, converting them into odds that reflect the likelihood of each team's victory. Handicap Betting Explained In instances where the gap in skill level between the teams is pronounced, the odds for the favored team are so low that the potential returns might hardly seem worth the wager, offering little enticement to punters. Handicap Bookmakers set a numerical value, known as a handicap, to mitigate the perceived skill disparity between the teams. This creates a more even betting field by adjusting the odds. To address the perceived imbalance in team abilities and to offer odds that are both fair and enticing, bookmakers introduce handicap betting. Within the soccer betting sphere, handicap bets adjust the playing field by applying a goal handicap - either positive or negative - to each team, thus allowing gamblers to uncover greater value than is typically available when merely betting on a strong favorite through the conventional 1X2 bet, the most popular soccer betting method. The handicap alters the game's actual outcome for the purpose of settling the bet. Bettors should be familiar with three kinds of handicap bets: Level Handicap A level handicap is assigned when teams are deemed equally matched in skill, meaning no handicap bias is necessary, and both teams commence with 0 goals. To secure a win from a wager, gamblers must predict which team will outscore the other. This form of handicap proves redundant in lopsided matches but is noteworthy for eliminating the possibility of a draw; in the event of a tie, all bets are returned since neither team holds an advantage with a zero handicap. Single Handicap A single handicap is used when a discernible difference in skill exists between Team X and Team Y. The team perceived to be superior is given a fitting goal handicap to level the betting landscape, for instance, -0.5 goal, -1 goal, -1.5 goals, etc. For instance, betting on Team X with a -1 goal handicap means they need to win by more than one goal for you to win your bet. A solitary goal victory by Team X results in a betting draw once the handicap is applied, prompting a refund of your bet. A draw or victory for Team Y signifies a loss on your bet on Team X. Split Handicap When the skill difference between the two teams is marginal, a split handicap allows you to divide your bet between two handicaps. This means you can place your bet on two different handicaps for the same game. For instance, Team X could be set at (0 & -0.5). Betting on Team X and witnessing their loss means both of your bets fall through, as neither handicap was covered. Should the game end in a tie, you're reimbursed for half your stake at (0), while you forfeit the other half at (-0.5). Conversely, a win for Team X means both your handicaps are covered, leading to a win on both bets. If your betting strategy has been rigidly tied to the traditional three-way fixed odds, you might find your returns lacking. Embracing the nuanced world of soccer handicap betting could offer a refreshing perspective and potentially more rewarding outcomes for your wagers, especially for the discerning bettor in India looking for that extra edge in their betting strategy. Now you know what is handicap soccer betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- What is vig (vigorish bettin) and how is it defined? - Betting markets: how do we beat the vig? - Finding the edge and overcoming commission in betting - What is conditional probability? Understanding Vigorish in Betting Vigorish, or vig for short, is essentially the commission that bookies earn from bets. It represents the margin that's included in betting markets. For bettors in India, overcoming the vig isn't just about outsmarting other market players; it's also about finding those bets where the odds are in your favor enough to outweigh the bookmaker's commission. Beating the Vigorish: Strategies for Success To surpass the vigorish in betting arenas, it’s crucial to scout for factors and aspects not yet considered in the odds. Creating your own odds or keeping an eye on odds movement due to influential bettors or money flows can be advantageous. The latter approach is known as "Steam Chasing," a term quite familiar to seasoned bettors. The Construction of Betting Odds In modern betting landscapes, odds are often the product of sophisticated mathematical models, drawing heavily on frequentist probabilities and data analytics. However, what's typically overlooked in market pricing is the concept of conditional probability—our secret weapon as value-focused bettors. The Role of Conditional Probability Conditional probability helps estimate the likelihood of an event occurring, considering another related event has already happened. Bookies, constrained by time and resources, rarely adjust odds based on this Bayesian inference, which takes into account such related event impacts. Balancing the Bookmaker's Advantage Bookmakers aim to outperform the average punter, and they start with an advantage thanks to the vigorish. However, understanding and utilizing principles such as heuristics can level the playing field for bettors. This approach to pricing benefits both the bookie and the bettor, a phenomenon I like to call the Blackbox Paradox. The Mechanics of Vig in Betting In the betting world, vig is a tool for profit and risk management, ensuring bookies stay in the green. A standard method for incorporating vig into a balanced two-way market is to adjust the odds to 10/11 for each option. Calculating the Vigorish To compute the implied probability and thus the vigorish, one can use the formula: Implied Probability=11/21=0.524 0.524×100=52.4%0.524×100=52.4% For both sides of a bet, this totals to 104.8%, with the excess 4.8% representing the vigorish. Vig Percentage Breakdown To find the exact vig percentage, the formula is: 1−(1/overround)×100 Using the previously mentioned example: 1–(1/104.8)×100=4.58% Hence, the bookmaker's theoretical commission or vig from that market stands at 4.58%. Finding Edges Over the Commission: The Inside Track To gain an upper hand in defeating the commission, one must engage in logical thinking first and foremost. Take football, for example, where the live odds calculated through time decay fail to account for match-specific live factors. In the world of golf betting, the impact of sudden weather shifts on the game is often overlooked by in-play betting algorithms. This oversight can lead to skewed probabilities when, say, adverse weather conditions or a particularly long course puts a significant portion of the players at a disadvantage, without the odds reflecting these changes. Golf's place markets are derived from outright odds, yet a player with odds of 100.000 to win doesn't automatically stand at 10.000 for a top-10 finish or 5.000 for a top-20 finish. It's essential to weigh factors such as a player's current form or suitability for the course in question. "Hypnotised by Numbers" delves into a theoretical instance in golf betting, highlighting the average 50% hole out rate from eight feet for top-tier golfers. This percentage can shift based on the golfer's proficiency in putting, the type of grass, and the green's slope and speed. By selectively betting on proficient putters and considering the greens' conditions, it's feasible to surpass the odds. For instance, targeting strong putters on 11-12 stimpmeter greens could boost the hole out rate from eight feet to close to 60%, versus the average 50%. This strategic selectivity in sports betting can yield a 60% win rate on a 10/11 bet, even after the vigorish, translating to a 14% long-term return on investment on an otherwise even-money bet. The book highlights how, in prop betting markets, while the bookies generally prevail over the average bettor, a minority of savvy bettors can also come out ahead by identifying and leveraging mispriced odds, given the nuances of the sports aren't always fully incorporated into the betting markets. Through the lens of "Hypnotised By Numbers," we examine Denzel Dumfries's performance for the Netherlands in Euro 2020, initially pegged at 10/1 to score at any time. His role, however, leaned more towards a forward, evidenced by his scoring in consecutive matches, underscoring the value of applying conditional probability in soccer prop betting. Beating the Vigorish with Conditional Probability Odds represent implied probabilities, with the key word being "implied." The market's efficiency is questionable, as it largely relies on identical datasets that overlook situational nuances. The traditional models and algorithms are grounded in frequentist statistics, but by applying conditional probability, we can significantly outmaneuver them, thus overcoming the vigorish. Successful sports betting hinges on grasping the core mathematics of the markets and employing logical strategies to outwit them, rather than mirroring the odds compilers' methodologies and data. The Dunning-Kruger Effect and the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggest market invincibility, but the reality is more nuanced. With odds fluctuating based on incoming bets, what we're witnessing is Bayesian Inference at play. By leveraging conditional probability in the sports betting markets, we refine our estimates of true prices, discovering valuable opportunities. The differentiation between winning and losing bets ultimately boils down to the application of logical reasoning. Now you know how the vigorish betting works and how to beat the vigorish with conditional probability in sports betting. 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- Empirical evidence and intuitive data in betting - Is handicapping the best skill in sports betting? - Closing line value in sports betting - Managing risk in sports betting To gauge the efficacy and genuine aptitude in sports wagering, a more extensive volume of bets may necessitate computing a probability value (p-value) to discern the likelihood of outcomes happening by mere chance. Employing a p-value calculator with inputs like ROI%, average odds, and the volume of bets (n) could reveal the probability of achieving certain results without the influence of skill. Statistically, a p-value under 0.05 typically signifies the rejection of the null hypothesis, suggesting a slim chance that the outcomes of sports betting were purely coincidental. Empirical evidence and intuitive data in betting P-values aren't indicators of a gambler's skill, yet what if certain adept sports gamblers could accurately gauge uncertainty? In my narrative, Hypnotised By Numbers, I discuss how some proficient bettors possess what's termed risk intelligence, allowing their minds to operate in a specific manner. These gamblers can instinctively execute mental iterations based on previously gathered empirical evidence and accurately predict probabilities for forthcoming events. Such is the cognition of numerous professional sports gamblers. Empirical evidence is derived from observation and recording of particular patterns and behaviors through data or experimentation. These seasoned gamblers accumulate this data, processing it like a computer, with extensive hours dedicated to observing the sports they wager on, often focusing on specific sports and markets. Indeed, accumulated experiences act as data, forming the basis for decisions made over time, mostly based on intuition. Risk intelligence entails accurately estimating probabilities using intuition from past experiences. In betting, as Marco Blume of 7x7Bets once stated, there are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. For example, if a horse slows considerably uphill at Cheltenham or a UFC fighter tires in the fourth round, what size sample is necessary to predict these outcomes consistently? Should such variables be factored into the estimation of true (conditional) probability? Observing the Cheltenham horse once might suffice. The logic behind the variables Significant variance in genuinely random events like coin tosses necessitates large samples to normalize, yet sports betting involves many scenarios where uncertainty can be accurately quantified over smaller samples. This represents what I often term the logic behind the variables. The secret to unlocking value lies in observing sports to identify unpriced angles in markets. By watching games, we expect a less volatile profit and loss graph that aligns more closely with our theoretical EV line. Handicapping is the best skill to have in sports betting In the realm of sports betting, the craftiest of handicappers often remain under wraps. The magnitude of your bets doesn't directly mirror your expertise in betting. Much like poker, where ace players frequent the low-to-mid stakes, the real prowess in sports wagering isn't quantified by the cash you gamble or gain. It boils down to outsmarting the odds, including the vig. I'm not alluding to the closing line value, which is the true probability of all your wagers across a substantial sample size. This insight is gleaned from your enduring ROI%. The closer your forecasted Expected Value (EV) aligns with your tangible Return on Investment over time, and the higher that ROI escalates, the more pronounced your edge over the bookies and the market becomes. Many ace bettors dabble in handicapping, with the crème de la crème devising or calculating their fair odds for markets of interest. These calculated odds result in an authentic 100% book, not the distorted bookmaker percentage padded with a margin. The true masters in sports betting intricately analyze the sports and the betting markets to unearth their advantage and pinpoint market inefficiencies. This method is often termed a bottom-up approach to betting. Understanding Closing Line Value in Sports Betting Closing Line Value (CLV) offers another perspective on assessing performance and skill in sports betting. However, its efficiency varies across sports and markets. Ideally, we aim for a Return on Investment that mirrors our anticipated or theoretical EV across a vast number of bets. Achieving a 10% ROI that matches our theoretical EV is preferable over a 5% ROI paired with a 15% CLV. Is the closing line value effective? It's contingent on the sport and the market. To compute Closing Line Value, we adopt this straightforward equation from Hypnotised By Numbers: ((Decimal odds taken - closing odds)/closing odds) x 100 Emerging as an alternate metric to gauge a perceived long-term advantage, CLV is predominantly utilized by "Steam Chasers" or advocates of the top-down betting approach. Software that juxtaposes lines from various sportsbooks furnishes data-centric bettors with advantages, sans deep sports knowledge. This concept isn't novel – it's been a staple in European betting circuits following the advent of odds comparison platforms and Betfair. CLV is deemed valuable for tracking performance, especially in popular and liquid markets. Averaging on the favorable side of CLV is desirable in most markets over the long haul, yet CLV and EV don't always align. Upon amassing a broad bet portfolio, if your actual ROI mirrors your predicted EV, that stands as the prime indicator of genuine betting acumen. Bettors focused on prop bets, derivatives, or niche markets may not always capture significant CLV, or if they do, it might stem from easily influenced lines, sometimes by their own betting activity. Smarter Betting Insights Accuracy in estimating true odds diminishes the need for large samples to reveal your true betting skill, provided the variables and parameters you consider remain constant. "Uncertainty" in betting can often be quantified to some extent. For those engaging with longer-odds markets, leveling out variance takes time. However, several strategies can tilt the odds in our favor as bettors: Implementing an efficient risk management and staking strategy Enhancing our discipline Focusing on lower odds to mitigate variance Line shopping Expanding our network and scaling up Selecting games wisely in sports betting Recording our bets and identifying odd patterns in spreadsheets or game variables Placing a high volume of value bets to reduce volatility and variance Risk Management in Sports Betting Securing a consistent edge against the odds is just half the battle. Risk management forms the other critical aspect, with Kelly staking serving as a foundational strategy. Starting with 30% Kelly offers a robust basis. The Kelly formula tempers the betting risk, suggesting an optimal stake size relative to our bankroll to leverage the perceived bet value maximally. The Kelly Formula is outlined as follows: (Adjust to 30% of F post-calculation) F* = (bp-q /b), where: F is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager b represents the net odds received on the bet ("b” to 1 - for decimals, 2.50 equals 1.5 to 1) p is the winning probability q is the losing probability, 1–p Final Reflections on Performance and True Skill in Sports Betting Return on Investment embodies the most authentic metric for assessing betting skill. If our ROI% aligns with our Expected Value over a significant number of bets and there's a valid rationale for the odds being off, then our performance likely stems from skill. Our ability to outdo the odds stands as the paramount indicator of our betting acumen. Unlike casino or other chance games, uncertainty in sports betting can usually be quantified to a degree. Consistently placing bets with positive expectations leads to long-term victories, provided an efficient staking plan and bankroll management strategy are in place. Allowing a margin for error in your tissue pricing by setting a threshold regarding theoretical EV can be beneficial. For instance, if deeming something a 2.000 fair price, you might opt for no less than 2.200, equating to a 10% EV threshold, granting you that leeway. Now you know how to measure performance and true skill in sports betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Are winning streaks caused by skill or luck? - Evaluating skill with the help of a coin. How to place bet? - The Floyd Mayweather example Betting on sports involves a blend of skill and luck, much like the remarkable winning streaks of elite athletes such as Roger Federer at Wimbledon, Jurgen Klopp in home matches, and Floyd Mayweather in the boxing ring. But what really contributes to these streaks of victory - sheer talent or a touch of fortune? Continue reading for deeper insights. These iconic figures have consistently outperformed their highly skilled contemporaries. The secret to their extended periods of success isn't just their exceptional abilities but also the significant role of luck. Replacing characters with coins Viewing professional sports streaks through a mathematical lens simplifies the understanding of our skewed perceptions of winning runs. Consider boxing legend Floyd Mayweather's victories as a series of coin flips, stripping away the notion of skill from the equation. Tossing a coin 100 times, the odds favor a 75% chance of witnessing at least a six-time consecutive heads (or tails) streak, and a 10% chance of seeing at least ten in a row. Visualize a sequence with “O” symbolizing heads and “X” for tails: Humans instinctively search for recognizable patterns, like the pronounced series of Os in the fourth line. Does this streak signify a moment of advantage or skill? No, it's merely the workings of probability. For athletes, coaches, and teams alike, any run of results, especially winning streaks, tends to distort our judgment in a manner similar to the aforementioned pattern, leading us to overestimate the likelihood of the streak continuing. Replacing O’s and X’s with W’s and L’s (wins and losses), consider this pattern: Initially, what seems to likely continue the "???"? Many would predict an extension of the win streak. Now, observe this sequence: What fills in the "???" here? Instinctively, we extend the pattern to "WWWWW," despite the open possibility of any outcome. This is because our brains are wired to recognize and adhere to patterns, even without logical justification, a notion further reinforced by The Gambler’s Fallacy. The skill factor It’s clear that the achievements of sports greats aren't solely attributable to randomness. Their innate talent positions them to reach these heights, effectively making them a biased coin more likely to land on "H" (win) than not, though not guaranteed. Take Rafael Nadal on clay courts, for instance. His win rate on this surface averages 95.4%, indicating his victories aren’t just flukes, although luck could have contributed to his flawless 2010 season. So, was Federer's Wimbledon dominance purely a matter of outclassing Pete Sampras? Or are the Heat comparably as formidable as the Lakers of the 1970s following their record-setting win streak? The truth possibly lies in between. Winning streaks typically emerge from a mix of elements, including luck. Overlooking the role of chance may lead to overvaluing teams currently on a winning spree. In American sports, where talent distribution is more balanced, chance arguably plays a more significant role, making it less feasible for a single team to monopolize victories as in European football. Beyond winning streaks, caution should also be exercised when interpreting form guides. Can a team with a recent record of LLWWW truly be expected to outperform a WWLLL opponent? Now you know how to place bet during a winning streak. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Putting the rational choice theory to the test - Irrationality applied in betting - What are your reasons for betting? What is your betting psychology? Learning the ropes of successful sports betting inevitably brings you face-to-face with the crucial concept of betting psychology. Does your mindset have a tangible impact on your betting outcomes? What are the most prevalent pitfalls, and how can you navigate around them? Are you the master of your betting decisions, or are they mastering you? Dive into this primer on betting psychology to uncover these answers. Humans pride themselves on their rational thought processes, a trait we believe sets us apart from the animal kingdom. Our entire economic model hinges on the rational choice theory, which posits that individuals always make decisions that maximize their benefits while minimizing losses. This theory seems logical in theory, but does it hold up in the real world? Let’s explore. Putting the rational choice theory to the test In economic terms, preference refers to how alternatives are ranked based on their utility, or the satisfaction or reward they provide. For instance, if Mary prefers mangos over strawberries and strawberries over apples, we can predict she’ll choose mangos over apples when given the option. However, consider Mary at her niece’s birthday party, where the only dessert options left are mangos and apples. As she reaches for the mango, two children rush to grab it. Mary decides to split the mango to teach the children a lesson in sharing, ultimately settling for the apple. Is Mary’s decision irrational? Behavioral scientists would argue that Mary derives more satisfaction from making the children happy than she would from eating the mango herself, leading her to choose the apple. Let’s apply this scenario to Mary’s spending habits. Before payday, Mary is broke and frustrated with her overspending. She runs into a friend enjoying an apple with honey and cinnamon and decides to share it, resisting the temptation to spend on mango and vanilla ice cream. Would Mary make the same choice right after payday when she can afford her desired treats? Your actions in sports betting should be dictated by the Expected Value of your bets, not by emotions or assumptions about making money. Fast forward to payday, Mary, determined to take control of her finances, sets a shopping budget. At the supermarket, she chooses strawberries over mangos, sticking to her budget and goals despite her preferences. Irrationality applied in betting Do behavioral scientists have a point in claiming that people don't always act according to rational principles? This is a complex topic, but an important takeaway is that stating a desire doesn't automatically align your actions with it. Real-life decisions are influenced by so many factors that assuming rational behavior in betting is itself irrational. Rational thinking in betting is almost a superpower. Is betting on Over 2.5 goals rational just because a team previously scored four goals against a strong opponent? If you believe so, you’re falling prey to the availability bias. If you aim for consistent betting income, every bet should be evaluated for its Expected Value to ensure it aligns with your goal of profitability. Ever increased your stake after a losing streak, convinced your luck must change? This gambler’s fallacy is just one of many cognitive biases that bettors need to guard against. Overcoming these biases isn’t straightforward, but you can control your betting choices by focusing on Expected Value rather than subjective feelings, aligning your actions with the goal of joining the ranks of profitable sports bettors. So, why do you bet? Consider your motivations for betting. Is it for the thrill, the occasional win, or social interaction? If so, betting serves as entertainment for you. Enjoy it responsibly, ensuring you only spend what you can afford to lose. However, if you’re determined to earn a consistent income from betting, scrutinize each wager for its Expected Value, beyond any gut feelings. After all, making money through betting is a marathon, not a sprint, where the laws of probability are unfailingly accurate over the long haul. Now you know the rational and irrational choices in betting psychology. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Understanding what actually betting is - Develop your skills and then you’ll need luck - Why psychology makes things even more difficult - Will you ever know if you’re good at betting? While engaging in betting can offer moments of excitement and entertainment, transforming it into a lucrative endeavor poses significant challenges. Many individuals aspire to make sports betting their primary source of income, yet they often underestimate the amount of effort and dedication required. To delve deeper into the complexities of betting, continue reading. Understanding what betting actually is Contrary to popular belief, betting isn't merely a test of one's sports knowledge. Possessing a deep understanding of soccer or basketball doesn't guarantee success in making profitable bets on these sports. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb eloquently states in "Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder," equating proficiency in performing with expertise in discussing is fundamentally flawed. Interestingly, sports enthusiasts represent a minority in the trading department of 7x7Bets, highlighting the distinct difference between sports knowledge and the ability to probabilistically analyze sports outcomes. Having extensive knowledge about a sport can sometimes be a hindrance, as it might skew judgment and decision-making. However, when applied judiciously, such knowledge can undoubtedly serve as a valuable asset. Betting is, in essence, a competition to accurately predict future events. Although bets are placed with a bookmaker—who stands to gain if you lose and pays out if you win—the real competition is against other bettors. Initially, it may seem that the bookmaker has the upper hand, armed with superior resources and information to set odds. Yet, a significant portion of their advantage is derived from the betting market itself, particularly in a high-volume environment like 7x7Bets. This scenario creates opportunities to exploit inefficiencies in a bookmaker's odds. However, these opportunities are fleeting, as any value found is quickly corrected once recognized. Hence, securing value before others is akin to a race among bettors. Develop your skills and then you’ll need luck Pursuing any financially rewarding activity necessitates a commitment to improving one's skills. What often goes unnoticed is the sheer number of individuals aiming for the same goal. Those who consistently find an edge and leverage it to maintain profit understand the importance of analyzing a substantial sample size of results. While competition can be motivating, it's crucial to recognize that as the betting market's skill level increases, luck plays a more significant role in determining outcomes. Michael Maubossin discusses the Paradox of Skill, which Joseph and I explored in a podcast. This paradox, relevant to sports betting, underscores the challenge of achieving long-term success. It differentiates between absolute and relative skill, suggesting that even high levels of skill become less distinguishable as the gap between the best and average bettors narrows, thus amplifying the role of luck. Understanding the Paradox of Skill is one thing; accepting its implications is another. Overlooking the impact of luck on betting outcomes can lead to unrealistic expectations and potential risks. Why psychology makes things even more difficult The psychological aspects of betting significantly influence decision-making and perception. A myriad of psychological biases can affect betting choices, timing, stake amounts, and more. Acknowledging these biases is crucial for anyone aiming to profit consistently from betting. Successful bettors prioritize their process over outcomes, navigating through common psychological pitfalls like the gambler's fallacy, illusion of control, and loss aversion. The influence of psychology on betting extends beyond well-known concepts to encompass a broader range of biases that affect how we process information, remember past events, and assess probabilities. Will you ever know if you’re good at betting? The aim of betting for a living may be to simply make money (exactly how much is dependent on each individual bettor) but this means there is a tendency for bettors to focus on the results. Some bettors will use a basic measure of profit and loss, while others will use the 7x7Bets closing line to get a more accurate reflection of how efficient their predictions are. As already explained, your results will often be influenced by luck and therefore it is important to shift focus from results to process. This also means as a bettor you have to become emotionally removed from winning or losing and the money you are risking (a very difficult task in itself). Being good at betting is a real challenge, but the most difficult thing to grasp is that you may never actually know if you’re skilled or not (regardless of how much money you win or lose). Those who have enjoyed long term success in betting will have prioritized the process they use over the results they get - even the best bettors in the world will have to deal with a period of losses. The bettors who continually manage to find an edge and exploit it enough to make a consistent profit are also the bettors who understand the importance of sample size when analyzing results. More novice bettors will likely fall victim to the law of small numbers (assuming results from a small sample will transmit to larger samples) and struggle to understand why losses suddenly occur more often than before. Now the hard work begins Once all of the above has been addressed, understood and (most importantly) taken on board, that’s when the hard work really begins in trying to find an exploitable edge in the betting market. When you know how betting actually works, how influential luck can be on your results and the impact your psychological biases will have on the decision-making process, only then is pursuing a career in betting a worthwhile endeavor. What are drawdowns and how do you manage them? There are countless betting strategies that can help you find an edge but doing your own research and analyses will likely prove more beneficial in the long run (if your methods are already public knowledge then the bookmaker will have already accounted for them). Once you have what you believe to be a profitable betting strategy and an exploitable edge, you then need to be able to dedicate time (to be able to place your bets the second they need to be placed) and money (to handle the inevitable losses) in order to see the benefits. While you need to use the right staking method to ensure you don’t run out of bankroll, you also need to be psychologically prepared to lose (even the best bettors out there will lose more than 40% of the time) and patient enough to keep working away until you get the results you’re after. Now you know what betting is. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Binary bias - Outcome bias - What is a good bet? The way bettors process information is important to their success. What is binary bias? What can YouTube and the Baltimore Ravens tell us about betting psychology? What is a good bet? Read on to find out. What is binary thinking? Binary thinking involves sorting information into mutually exclusive options, not unlike the way a computer thinks in binary code. Something is either a 1 or a 0 and those are the only two options. There is no gray area. Many argue that humans instinctively sort information in this kind of way, naturally jumping into this kind of binary method of thinking. For primitive humans this made sense. The kind of judgments that needed to be made to survive lent themselves well to such a way of thinking, especially when it came to quick decision-making. Decisions such as whether a rustle heard in the bush is a predator or non-predator were life-or-death ones. The reward offered by spending valuable time weighing up the information available about the sound (whilst a predator could be preparing to strike) is not worth the risk of being eaten. Simply categorizing the rustle in the bush as a predator and fleeing makes much more sense from a risk vs reward perspective. Richard Dawkins claims such a desire for straight yes-or-no solutions to neatly categorize information is “The tyranny of the discontinuous mind”. He suggests that people seek the reassurance of an either-or classification because it’s much easier for the brain to think in binary, as our distant ancestors did, rather than consider the shades of gray between two conclusions. This kind of binary decision making is perfectly fine for basic snap decision making, but we now live in a world of nuance. Nowhere is this reflected more acutely than in the world of betting. Binary bias: caffeine and YouTube ratings How does binary decision making affect the way we process information? Fisher and Keil set out to ascertain this in a series of studies on what they called “binary bias”. For these studies, participants were given evidence about a topic, before being asked to summarize the evidence and give a rating that best captured their overall impression of the strength of the argument. If people are evaluating data from different studies investigating the relationship between caffeine and health, for example, they would quickly categorize data as either showing an effect or not, regardless of the relative strength of the evidence. Overall they found that: “Across a wide variety of contexts, we show that when summarizing evidence, people exhibit a binary bias: a tendency to impose categorical distinctions on continuous data. Evidence is compressed into discrete bins, and the difference between categories forms the summary judgment.” In other words the participants tended to ignore the relative strength of the evidence presented to them, instead favoring categorizing them into discrete categories and looking at the sum total of evidence within those categories. This stripped out all the continuous data. As a result, a conclusion with a 25% likelihood in one direction was simply bucketed with all the conclusions that leaned in that direction regardless of their strength. This made the data easier to process for the test subjects but meant that the value of the information diminished. YouTube discovered this whilst trying to refine their rating system for videos. Their star ratings proved to be ineffective since the vast majority of votes were either for one star or five star. This was a consequence of binary decision making. If the user likes the video they categorize it as a five, whilst if they didn’t like the video then they categorized it as a one. All of the information in the middle of these two discrete categories was lost. This resulted in YouTube switching to a simpler thumbs up/down system. Outcome bias As shown above, humans prefer to sort information into two distinct categories where possible. This is also the case within betting. To an inexperienced bettor, a good bet is simply one that wins. A bad bet is one that loses. Those two buckets are easy to grasp and make intuitive sense to somebody without a good grasp of the nuances behind betting. This however, is completely false. A winning bet can be a terrible bet whilst the best bet ever placed may have turned out to be a loser. By categorizing bets in such a simple way, all of the useful information gets stripped away. This desire to attribute a data point into a “good” or “bad” category due to the outcome of an event was shown during the debate around the Baltimore Ravens’ failed two point conversion attempt from the 2019 NFL season. Mathematically, the decision to go for the two point conversion was the correct one by the Ravens. However, because the attempt failed, some pundits categorized the call into the “bad decision” bucket. The extra information given by the analytics behind such a play was removed for these pundits due to a mixture of outcome bias (a failed attempt must have been caused by a poor decision) and binary bias (the need to place the play into a distinct category). Had the play proved successful their opinions would, in all likelihood, have been different. What is a good bet? Thinking like a bettor In order to get into a successful betting mind-set the bettor must learn to avoid such biases. The gray area between win and lose is what distinguishes a good bet from a bad one. Bettors work in percentages. If the bettor’s percentage is more accurate than that of the bookmaker’s he will win in the long run. But is it even possible to ascertain whether the bettor’s percentages are even accurate? Without a large sample size it is almost impossible to answer that question definitively. Take one famous percentage figure as an example. Statistics website FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 30% chance of winning the 2016 US presidential election. Of course, Trump went on to become president. The reaction to this prediction from some quarters was to label it as “wrong”. Given the binary approach people take to such things, you can see why it would be tempting to do so. As the work on binary bias done by Fisher and Keil showed, people removed the weakened strength of the prediction (Trump being awarded 30% chance instead of 0% chance) to place the prediction in the “wrong” category they are comfortable with. But this is obviously nonsense. According to the prediction, Trump should win three times out of ten. The fact the scenario played out to become one in which Trump won shows us nothing new about the accuracy of the prediction. The sample size would need to be extended to a meaningful level by running the same election repeatedly (which is of course impossible). Only then could we see how close FiveThirtyEight’s prediction of 30% Trump wins was to reality. Controlling the chaos This is understandably disconcerting. It goes against our instincts to say that we actually don’t know and may never know whether an individual prediction was a good one. There have certainly been bets I have placed where I intuitively felt the percentages were in my favor, but outside of a model run across a large sample of similar events, there is no way to definitively say that I was correct. As bettors we are operating in that grey area between the “good” and “bad” bet buckets. To be successful you have to step away from easy classifications and embrace the percentages on an individual bet for what they are. Simply attempts to create a “good” bet with the knowledge that we may never truly know whether we can ever classify them as such. Now you know what is a good bet. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Remember the end goal | betting principles - Know your competition - It’s not always about winning - Look after your money Sports betting transcends merely adhering to a set of guidelines or rules to ensure success. Individual strategies vary significantly. Nonetheless, several fundamental principles universally benefit bettors. This article delves into five essential principles every bettor should integrate into their approach. 7x7Bets' extensive Betting Resources archive, with thousands of articles, underscores the vast learning scope in betting. The foundational success elements remain consistent across different sports. These basic yet crucial elements form the cornerstone of betting success. Many bettors tend to overlook these basic principles, a misstep that could jeopardize long-term profitability. Embracing and adhering to these principles is pivotal for a positive betting experience, although it might seem straightforward. The inception of one's betting journey focuses on grasping basic concepts. However, seasoned bettors, who are often looked up to, have spent years honing their skills and knowledge to exploit market inefficiencies effectively. This journey begins with fundamental lessons that are never forgotten. Irrespective of your stage in the betting journey, the five key concepts outlined here should guide your betting decisions, ensuring they remain aligned with your goals. Remember the end goal Bettors occasionally lose sight of their ultimate objective. While betting for entertainment differs, the primary goal for many is achieving a positive return on investment. Top-tier bettors excel not just because they win but because they handle losses effectively, understanding the long-term nature of sports betting. It's crucial to view betting as a marathon rather than a sprint, focusing on long-term gains rather than short-term outcomes. Getting too caught up in individual bets only makes you more likely to forget the bigger picture. Whether it’s reacting to a loss and trying to recover some funds or getting too carried away after a win and placing bets with little thought or reasoning, bettors should always think about the impact these decisions could have in a week, month or a year’s time. Betting requires hard work, patience and dedication. You aren’t going to enjoy overnight success and even if you do, you could just as easily lose the fruits of that success the very next day. Whether you win or lose a bet, analyze the bet for what it was, move on and remember your end goal. Know your competition Initially, betting might seem like a battle against the bookmaker. However, understanding betting markets reveals that the real competition is against other bettors. It's the collective action of these bettors that shapes the odds, making it imperative to identify and seize market value. Of course, it is the bookmaker who posts the odds that you bet with and the bookmaker who collects the deposits you make so it’s easy to see why people want to take them on. Unfortunately, that is a battle that you are never going to win - even if you do win the odd battle, there are plenty more people that have lost it (bookmakers wouldn’t exist if this wasn’t the case). Once the odds for a market are initially posted, it is other bettors that help shape them. It is these bettors that you are competing against to try and get any value that might be on offer in the market. It is also important to remember that this competition with bettors is all relative. It doesn’t matter if you can accurately predict the outcome of soccer matches before they are played, if there are people out there that have more accurate predictions than yours, those are the ones who will get the reward. It’s not always about winning Betting inherently involves randomness, leading to inevitable losses. Successful bettors understand that it's not about winning every bet but maintaining a favorable win-loss ratio over time. Analyzing losses to refine your betting strategy is crucial for long-term success. An extra €3.40 for one bet might not seem like a lot, but that could soon add up to over €1,000 in a year. All of sudden, it then becomes a lot more appealing. People may believe that bettors who are known to make large sums of money from betting have some kind of golden touch. But the idea that an individual can always find the perfect bet and have everything go to plan so that they always win is complete nonsense. These bettors will lose, but they will just lose less often than they win. Given that losses are one of the few certainties in betting, knowing how to deal with them is a fundamental part of being a bettor. One exercise bettors might find useful is to try and analyze why a bet lost, review everything you knew beforehand and ask whether you would place that bet again. If the answer is yes, then you’ve done all you can. If the answer is no, perhaps it’s time to rethink your decision-making process in the first place. The best bettors out there aren’t just the best because they know how to win. They are the best because they know how to lose and not let it affect them. You don’t have complete control Acknowledging the limitations of your control over betting outcomes is essential. Behavioral biases can significantly influence betting decisions. Awareness and management of these biases are vital for making rational betting choices. Behavioral biases can have a massive impact on your decision-making process in betting and the sooner you become aware of that, the better. This is not only something you should acknowledge as a bettor, but something you should constantly remind yourself of. You can’t have control over these behavioral biases, but having an awareness of them and how prevalent they are will certainly help you. Everything from selective memory of certain events and changing a past opinion, to the reason why we do or don’t place a certain bet can be impacted by these biases. By their very definition, they make us deviate from rational judgment – which obviously doesn’t bode well in a world of risk where money is involved. Look after your money A €10 bet and €10,000 bet can mean the same thing to different people. It doesn’t matter how much or how little you bet, optimizing your bankroll is key to achieving success over a long period of time. Effective bankroll management is essential for sustainable betting, regardless of the stakes involved. It involves prudent stake allocation and seeking the best odds to maximize returns and minimize losses over time. These principles, while basic, are fundamental to successful betting. They provide a solid foundation for developing a comprehensive understanding and strategy for sports betting, aiming for long-term profitability rather than short-term wins. Getting the most out of your money doesn’t just apply to optimizing your stake for each individual bet, it applies to the odds you bet with as well. The difference between odds of 2.34 and 2.36 might seem minimal but in the long run, even a small difference counts in betting. Comparing odds (or line shopping) might seem like a lot of work for little reward, but this is another example of where the narrow mindedness of looking at your results from bet to bet can have a negative impact. An extra €3.40 for one bet might not seem like a lot, but that could soon add up to over €1,000 in a year. All of sudden, it then becomes a lot more appealing. These five key principles are still such a small part of betting. However, out of the countless things to learn, remember and consistently execute, they are a good place to start. Remembering your end goal, knowing your competition, understanding it’s not all about winning, that you don’t have control and that you need to look after your money isn’t going to guarantee success. It will certainly help though. Now you know the five key betting principles. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Why an actuary might make a good gambler - Similarities between financial and betting modelling - The concept of insurable interest - Making the move from actuary to sport betting Profitable bettors come from all walks of life. Yet, if you are in the actuarial profession, you are well ahead of the curve. Here’s what Dominic Cortis, an associate actuary and current researcher in the betting markets, has to say about how actuaries can make a profit as a bettor. What area were you working in before you started your research in sports analytics, and how did you decide to focus on the betting markets? I've primarily been involved in academia, with a brief period in the actuarial field. My role at the Insurance and Pensions Supervisions Unit under the Maltese financial authority (MFSA) entailed gathering industry statistics, verifying solvency reserves, and prepping for new insurance regulations. During a Euro 2012 game, Dr. Frank Neumann, a senior peer, quizzed me about the betting industry. Though I lacked most answers, a sudden inspiration led me to explore the application of financial methods within betting markets. This epiphany steered my PhD towards a sports betting concentration rather than conventional finance. My research now revolves around developing a solvency framework for betting operators like 7x7Bets. What are the fundamental similarities in what you were doing then and what you do now? Both financial and betting modelling involve setting assumptions to construct your model. The success of the model heavily depends on the careful selection, evaluation, and update of these assumptions. Professionals in both domains often concentrate on model intricacies to devise advanced strategies for an edge, monitor price shifts, and assess data quality. Though both fields aim at risk assessment and value identification, the mechanics differ notably. Both fields are focused on measuring risk and finding value, but are there any aspects fundamentally different? Indeed, a wager essentially acts as a binary option, thus qualifying as a derivative. I view insurance and betting as fundamentally similar, with a major distinction being the 'insurable interest'. Insurance buyers must have 'insurable interest' — a stake in the potential loss from an event. Conversely, betting involves wagering on outcomes for potential gain, not compensatory recovery. "When purchasing insurance, one must have 'insurable interest'. The concept is the opposite for a bet. A bet is made to win an amount, while an insurance is made to place you in the same position should something occur." For instance, betting on Queen Elizabeth's demise constitutes a wager, whereas Prince Philip's similar action would be insuring. This nuance minimizes the issue of asymmetric information in sports and betting. Insurance applicants might withhold health conditions, leveraging the information gap. Conversely, insurers may utilize advanced models for more accurate risk assessments. However, this information disparity is significantly less in the betting sphere, especially for platforms like 7x7Bets. Finance predictions focus on the likelihood, magnitude, and timing of events. For instance, insuring against disasters involves estimating potential damages and their timing for strategic asset liquidation, acknowledging the long-term uncertainty of claims. In contrast, betting interests lie less in impact or timing, given the short-term nature of most wagers. Do you think an actuary is more likely to become a profitable sports bettor and why? Actuaries' expertise in risk management and model building undoubtedly provides a competitive advantage over conventional bettors or purely mathematical modelers. Moreover, actuaries excel at interpreting diverse data sources and simplifying findings for lay audiences. This skill is invaluable in consulting and can be leveraged in betting to exploit common biases among bettors on platforms like 7x7Bets. What advice would you give to an actuary aspiring to apply their knowledge in sports betting to make money? Applying actuarial skills in sports betting is profoundly rewarding. Exploring my strategy articles will reveal the actuarial thought influence. Treat any betting advice as a leisurely pursuit! The interviewee extends his gratitude to Nick Foster for his insightful contributions. Nick Foster, an actuary and academic at the University of Leicester, directs the BSc Mathematics and Actuarial Science program. He shares his insights on pensions and economics at www.weknow0.co.uk. Now you know how actuarial can help in sport betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!