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- How to calculate RTP values? - Are there good and bad RTP values? - Things to consider with RTP values - 7x7Bets Casino games RTP values How to calculate RTP values Calculating the Return to Player (RTP) percentage is straightforward with the following formula: (Total money returned to players) / (Total money bet by players) = RTP% The calculation involves two main components: the total amount wagered by players, which accumulates from every initial wager placed within a specified period, typically a month, and the total returned to players, representing all winnings awarded in the same timeframe. RTP is a concept widely recognized in slot games, but it's equally applicable across all casino offerings, including table games, live casino experiences, and virtual sports betting. For players, understanding RTP can be simplified as knowing what portion of ₹100 (assuming a gaming context more familiar to an Indian audience) spent on a game would, on average, return to them. This concept directly contrasts the house edge, which indicates the casino's expected profit margin per game. For example, if ₹150,000 were wagered during an RTP review, and players won ₹144,000 back, the RTP would be calculated as: 144,000150,000=0.96150,000144,000​=0.96 This equates to an RTP of 96%, suggesting that for every ₹100 wagered, one could anticipate winning back ₹96 on average. Players might also calculate their own RTP for a session. If ₹200 is bet and ₹168 is won, the session's RTP would be: 168200=0.84200168​=0.84 Indicating an 84% RTP for that play session. Are there good and bad RTP values? RTP percentages can vary widely across different casinos and their games. Generally, physical casinos offer lower RTPs (around 80-90%) compared to their online counterparts, where RTPs often range from 90% to 97%. Judging whether an RTP is 'good' or 'bad' depends on personal assessment and whether the value seems justified for wagering on that particular game. At 7x7Bets Casino, we maintain transparency and credibility in our RTP values, which are verified independently by eCOGRA. For your convenience, the RTP percentages for our games are as follows: 7x7Bets Casino games RTP values All games: 97.77% (₹97.77 return from ₹100 bets) Slot games: 96.23% (₹96.23 return) Table games: 97.70% (₹97.70 return) Video poker games: 93.12% (₹93.12 return) Live Casino: 98.27% (₹98.27 return) Virtual games: 87.38% (₹87.38 return) Games with RTPs of 100% or above are exceedingly rare, with some video poker variants occasionally exceeding this threshold. Things to consider with RTP values While RTP offers a useful gauge on potential returns, it's important to remember its role as a general guide rather than a precise predictor. Higher RTPs don't guarantee more frequent wins; a game with a 90% RTP doesn't assure you'll win ₹90 from every ₹100 bet. In the realm of slot games, two other considerations, hit frequency and volatility, play crucial roles alongside RTP. Hit frequency indicates the likelihood of any given spin yielding a win, based on an average across numerous spins. Volatility, on the other hand, gauges the regularity and size of payouts and is usually classified as low, medium, or high. Games with lower volatility are known for frequent but smaller wins, whereas high-volatility games offer larger payouts but less frequently. Thus, understanding a slot's volatility can provide deeper insight into the risk-reward ratio, influencing player strategy even with high RTP values. This balance is why games of medium volatility are often favored for their equilibrium between win frequency and payout sizes. Now you know What are casino Return to Player (RTP) values? Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

Football's allure is undeniable, especially in Europe, where countless fans claim expertise due to their extensive knowledge of the sport. These enthusiasts follow nearly every match their beloved team plays, stay informed about player injuries, and keep an ear to the ground for the latest rumors. This vast fan base provides a fertile ground for potential successful bettors who already possess a solid foundation for football wagering. This guide aims to shed light on online football betting, offering valuable insights for wagering on various matches, specifically tailored to cater to an Indian audience with a local flavor in English. Is Betting on Football Online Legal in India? You might be pleasantly surprised to know that online betting is legal in India. Despite the general prohibition on betting, the online domain remains untouched by this restriction. Whether you're using a smartphone or prefer the desktop experience, downloading the 7x7Bets app or visiting the website ensures you're within the legal boundaries for some online betting action in India. Popular Football Leagues to Bet On Embarking on your betting journey requires choosing the right leagues. Each country boasts prestigious leagues, and knowing where to place your bets is crucial. The 7x7Bets platform offers a comprehensive list of football leagues to explore. From the nascent Indian Super League, teeming with fervent supporters and memorable clashes, to global giants like the UEFA Champions League, FIFA World Cup, English Premier League, La Liga, and the robust Bundesliga, each offers a unique flavor and betting opportunities. Indian Super League Indian Super League has not lived a long life yet; it appeared on the market just a few years ago. Nevertheless, it has already been followed by its loyal bettors. Here, you can find many exciting rivalries and unforgettable matches. UEFA Champions League It is another decent tournament beloved by bettors worldwide. The Champions League is sure to bring you tons of wins as only the best teams can compete in it. FIFA World Cup 32 teams from all around the globe compete in this exciting tournament. FIFA World Cup is the ultimate competition where you can bet on the strongest teams from different continents. English Premier League It is considered to be the best league in the world right now. Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Arsenal are the most famous teams in the English Premier League, but, of course, they are not the only ones. La Liga La Liga has its roots in Spain. After the English Premier League, it is the most famous one with the best teams. Few football fans have never heard of FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, or Atletico Madrid, right? Bundesliga German football, and particularly Bundesliga, is thought to be rougher, as players must show outstanding determination and motivation. Teams can achieve some results only when they give the game all of themselves. How Do Football Betting Odds Work? Understanding betting odds is pivotal. By converting odds into a percentage, you can gauge the likelihood of winning or losing. Multiplying your stake by the odds gives you the potential payout, and subtracting your original bet from the payout reveals your profit. This basic understanding aids in identifying the most favorable odds for your wagers. How Football Betting Works Football betting encompasses a variety of markets, each requiring some time to master. Popular betting types include 3-way betting, Double Chance Betting for those seeking lower risks, Handicap Betting which levels the playing field, Half Time/Full Time bets for predicting outcomes at different stages of the match, Over/Under Betting on total goals, and Correct Score Betting for those seeking higher stakes. The 7x7Bets platform offers a diverse range of betting markets, inviting bettors to explore and place their wagers on upcoming matches and championships. 3-way Betting The simplest form of betting on football is 3-way betting. All you need to do here is to think about the most likely match outcome: win of the home team, win of the guest team, or a draw. Double Chance Betting This bet is also popular among football fans. You can bet on a draw and on one’s win at the same time. This is a perfect way for those who are unsure about their betting skills or for those who want to reduce risks. The odds are lower, but your chances to win are quite pleasant as they are higher compared to 3-way betting, for example. Handicap Betting Handicap betting means that at the beginning of the match a team gets a handicap with + or – value. For example, the first team gets (+2,5): it means they are virtually given 2 goals before the game starts. It happens with teams that are considered weaker and might need a boost. If you place a handicap bet on this team and the final score is 1:3, they actually lose the game but you win. It is because with the addition of a handicap your team wins 3,5:3. Similarly, a handicap with a minus is given to stronger teams that are believed to win even with a few goals distracted from their result. Half Time/Full Time As it is clear from the name of this bet, you can predict the half time result and the match result in a single bet. You need to think of the team that is likely to be leading each time. In order to succeed, you need to know some history of teams, their weak and strong points. Over/Under Betting You need to predict whether the total sum of goals will be over or under a certain number. This match betting technique is also popular and is not hard to master. You can bet on goals, corners, cards, and so on. Correct Score Betting Keep in mind that this type of football match betting can be placed only during some big events. It is riskier than the previous types as you need to be really accurate with the numbers you predict. There are tons of other markets available for football betting: you can predict specific events during the match (goal scored, penalties, yellow cards, etc), bet on teams to win or draw in half time and match, bet on winner of the championship, and many others. Betting markets can be different for different games, so come and check them on the 7x7Bets website! Live Football Betting Betting live allows enthusiasts to place wagers even after the kickoff, a favored approach as it lets punters gauge the unfolding dynamics in real-time. The key here is to act swiftly, given the fleeting nature of opportunities as the match progresses. While instant decisions are vital, coming equipped with pre-game research enhances your chances significantly. The array of bets available mid-game, including 3-way, double chance, and handicaps, enrich the live betting experience, with unique in-game options like predicting the next scorer adding to the thrill. Parlay Football Betting Parlay betting amplifies the excitement, bundling multiple wagers into a single bet for the chance at enhanced returns. This strategy, however, is not for the faint-hearted as it carries heightened risk; all selected bets must hit for a payout. The agony of a single lost bet nullifying preceding wins is a harsh reality here. Yet, the allure of significant earnings for correctly forecasting a series of outcomes is compelling, encouraging bettors to gradually expand their parlay selections. How to Develop a Proper Football Betting Strategy and Win Success in football betting doesn't come overnight; it's a journey of learning through losses, requiring dedication and a buffer of disposable income for experimentation. Diving into expert analyses and crafting a personalized strategy while drawing lessons from the broader betting community are foundational steps. Constantly refining your approach based on outcomes fosters a proactive stance towards betting, propelling you towards greater success. Summary Embarking on football betting, particularly online with 7x7Bets, demands patience, effort, and financial commitment. The path to profitability is laden with challenges and learning curves. Starting with straightforward bets before navigating to more complex ones, selecting a supportive bookmaker, and engaging with a wealth of analytical resources are pivotal steps. Passion and strategy go hand in hand in this venture, bolstered by statistical insights to enhance your betting acumen. Now you know how to bet on football games. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Why do bettors need to be patient? - Understanding the influence of cognitive biases - How can patience help us make rational decisions? - Is technology making us impatient? Earning a living through betting is often depicted as a sequence of thrilling decisions leading to monumental wins. However, the truth is starkly different. To triumph in betting, one must be hardworking, quick to learn, and disciplined. Patience emerges as a crucial trait for any serious bettor, as elucidated in this discourse. Grasping the psychological aspects of betting holds equal importance as possessing accurate information and selecting the right bookmaker. While individuals gamble for varied reasons, adherence to specific principles is beneficial for those aiming at consistent gains. Why bettors need to be patient Patience — the ability to endure delays, troubles, or pain without irritation or distress — is often underappreciated as a fundamental element for profit-making in betting. Calculating expected value and outsmarting the closing line are vital, but amidst the unpredictability and luck in betting, patience becomes indispensable. A proficient poker player might still face losses after playing 100,000 hands (equivalent to two years at 40 hours a week). This highlights the significance of patience in betting, as explained by the law of large numbers and Jacob Bernoulli’s theorem, focusing on the principle of probability distribution. Eventually, randomness and luck will balance out for a bettor who maintains an advantage over the bookmaker’s margin. It's the patience to wait out the necessary sample size for this balance to manifest that's key. Joseph Buchdahl also emphasizes patience's importance in betting, referencing Nate Silver’s insight on a skilled poker player’s potential prolonged losses. This extreme scenario underscores the need for patience once an advantage is recognized, awaiting positive outcomes. Understanding the influence of cognitive biases Awareness of common betting pitfalls, the Gambler’s Fallacy, and recognizing that patience, when combined with an edge, will yield profits over time is essential. However, cognitive biases can disrupt logical thinking. Acknowledging a string of losses as part of a larger sample is crucial when you have a positive expected value. Several articles explore how cognitive biases affect betting decisions. Understanding these biases, like the favorite-longshot bias or hindsight bias, demonstrates how patience aids in maintaining rational judgment for more informed betting decisions. Short-term profit vs. Long-term success Patience aids in overcoming hyperbolic discounting — the preference for immediate rewards over greater, delayed gains. This is particularly relevant in staking strategies, where the choice of method can significantly impact risk and return. The contrast between those seeking immediate large wins and those adopting progressive or safer betting strategies like the Kelly Criterion underscores the importance of patience in betting for reducing risk and enhancing long-term success. Patience and rationality According to rational choice theory, decisions are made to maximize benefits and minimize losses, though this isn’t always reflected in betting practices. The quest for immediate satisfaction has influenced betting, offering easy betting options but sometimes at the cost of maximizing potential gains. Despite this, serious bettors understand the value of patience in securing better odds and maximizing their advantage, a reason why 7x7Bets’s competitive margins are highly valued. Patience also mitigates anxiety and irrational behaviors, aiding bettors in making more rational decisions. Is technology making us impatient? Technological advancements have simplified access to goods and services, promoting a culture of instant gratification that has seeped into betting. This has led to an environment where bets can be placed effortlessly, though often without much consideration, feeding into a cycle of impulsive betting behavior. Patience remains a critical mechanism for maintaining rational judgment amidst the lure of quick and easy betting options. Waiting for what you know is coming Ultimately, bettors must embrace patience and focus on the long-term view. Understanding that short-term losses are part of a larger, profitable sample size is key to maintaining an edge over bookmakers, finding value, and achieving success in betting. Betting transcends mere luck; it requires an edge, understanding of margins, and, critically, the patience to await the fruition of a well-calculated strategy. It's not a shortcut to wealth, but with patience, a strategic approach to betting can yield substantial rewards. Now you know why patience is an essential trait for any serious bettor. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Right and wrong isn’t as simple as you think - Accepting the inevitable in betting - Understanding your weaknesses - Getting things wrong to get your risk right For bettors, the ultimate goal is to secure wins, accumulate more money, and outsmart the betting market. It might seem paradoxical, but there's value in acknowledging the benefits of being incorrect. Why is that, you might wonder? Keep reading for enlightenment. Right and wrong isn’t as simple as you think In the world of betting, distinguishing between right and wrong is not always straightforward. If you clinch a bet, does that signify correctness? What if the football team you wagered on clinched a last-minute, contentious penalty for an unwarranted victory, or if a basketball player flubbed an easy shot in a game you bet would score under? Conversely, is it possible to be on the losing end and still be right? Every bettor ought to recognize that mistakes can lead to winnings, just as accurate predictions can lead to losses. The realm of sports is inherently unpredictable, with luck and randomness playing significant roles. Understanding that the outcome of your bets is not entirely within your control is crucial when engaging in sports betting. Good or bad fortune can influence not just a single bet but all your betting endeavors. It's essential to grasp the significance of luck in the betting sphere before gauging your prowess as a bettor. A failure to comprehend randomness and variance in sports betting is a risky affair. Many might celebrate a 9-2 record and a 10-unit profit from NFL bets over a weekend, interpreting it as a sign of expertise. This overconfidence could lead to increased betting or wagering more money. However, the perspective might shift dramatically by the NFL season's end, with a 139-59 record and a 95-unit deficit. Admitting errors can be challenging, yet it's a vital step towards improvement for bettors. Striving for perfection is natural, but reducing mistakes is an effective strategy for conserving funds in sports betting, eventually leading to profit generation. Accepting the inevitable Newcomers to betting should brace for the reality of not always being right. The benchmark for betting success is typically winning 53-55% of bets, which means even the best bettors face losses more than 40% of the time. While losing doesn’t necessarily equate to being wrong, frequent losses indicate some flawed decisions. Many claim to be top-tier sports bettors. Recognizing your fallibility early on—acknowledging that mistakes happen and dedicating efforts to improve—can be transformative. Accepting that errors occur allows for growth and improvement. If you constantly attribute losses to "bad beats," you're likely to repeat mistakes and stagnate. Understanding your weaknesses Once you accept that errors are part of the process and under your control, you can start identifying and rectifying your mistakes. This could involve revising your model’s inputs, updating your priors with new data, or addressing biases that affect your judgment of teams or players. It's up to you as a bettor to tackle these issues if you aim to enhance your betting skills. Review each bet post-event and consider whether, with current knowledge, you'd make the same bet again. Whether adjustments are minor or significant, recognizing a mistake is the first step towards improvement. Revisiting your strategies, experimenting with new methodologies, and comparing outcomes against historical data or previous approaches are part of the learning process. This article doesn't offer specific solutions but encourages a reflective approach to betting. Getting things wrong to get your risk right Mistakes not only aid in decision-making improvement but also teach valuable lessons in bankroll management. Accurate predictions are futile without capital to bet. Experiencing significant losses can foster a more cautious approach to money management, encouraging a steady betting strategy until results improve. As you refine your process and understand your betting edge, employing a proportional staking method, like the Kelly Criterion, becomes feasible. Adopting a systematic risk management approach enhances your risk tolerance, allowing for confident high-stake betting. A healthy risk tolerance is crucial for those aspiring to bet professionally, overcoming risk aversion to pursue betting as a viable income source. Managing funds wisely after setbacks prepares you for the routine of wins and losses, focusing on long-term outcomes rather than individual bet losses. Can you trust your process? For many bettors, the challenge lies in discerning whether wins or losses result from skill or luck, even after numerous bets. Analyzing your betting record through methods like the t-distribution, as suggested by Joseph Buchdahl, offers insights into the role of chance in your profits. Though this method doesn’t provide definitive answers regarding betting skill, it helps gauge the likelihood of profit by chance, especially with a substantial sample size. Getting things wrong isn’t all that bad Throughout your betting journey, it’s crucial to learn from both wins and losses. Assessing where you erred, whether due to miscalculations or bad luck, is vital. Reflecting on each bet post-event to decide if you'd repeat it, given your current knowledge, fosters development. Acknowledging mistakes shouldn’t be viewed negatively; rather, it’s a critical component of your growth as a bettor. Embracing errors as learning opportunities rather than setbacks can significantly enhance your betting strategy and decision-making process. It enables a more analytical approach to evaluating your bets, encouraging a cycle of continuous improvement and refinement of your betting strategies. This mindset shift from seeing mistakes as failures to viewing them as essential steps towards mastery can profoundly impact your success rate and overall performance in the betting world. Moreover, this perspective fosters resilience, allowing you to navigate the ups and downs of betting with a more balanced and informed approach. By critically analyzing your betting decisions, acknowledging when you're wrong, and understanding the underlying factors, you're better equipped to adjust your strategies and improve your outcomes. In summary, getting things wrong in betting is not just about accepting losses or admitting mistakes; it's about leveraging these experiences to build a more robust and effective betting strategy. It’s through these challenges that bettors can gain insights, refine their approaches, and ultimately, enhance their ability to make more informed and profitable betting decisions. Adopting this mindset and continuously seeking to learn and adapt is what sets successful bettors apart from the rest. So, the next time you find yourself reflecting on a wrong bet, remember that it’s an opportunity for growth and improvement. Embrace it, learn from it, and use it to refine your betting approach for better results in the future. Now you know why it pays to be wrong in betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Is gambling irrational? - How does overconfidence influence betting decisions? - Can both the buyer and seller get a good deal? For proponents of rational choice theory, the phenomenon of gambling poses a perplexing issue. It is generally accepted that individuals make decisions with the aim to maximize benefits while minimizing losses. For instance, one wouldn't spend €1,000 on a vacation perceived to be worth merely €500. Hence, if a wager comes with an expected value of zero or less, what drives gamblers to place such bets? Continue reading to uncover the reasons. The enigma of gambling psychology is intricate, yet at its core lies a straightforward query: if gamblers tend to lose money on average, what fuels their interest in gambling? In this discourse, we shall delve into the misunderstanding around expected value and elucidate why mathematical expectation and the attractiveness (or desirability) of an outcome don't always align. Is gambling irrational? In most gambling forms, like casino plays and lotteries, the expected outcome is usually negative. This holds true for a vast number of sports bettors, for whom the probability of outcomes isn't mathematically deduced from first principles, leading to a similarly unprofitable expectation. Considering the costs involved – the house advantage, the poker rake, and the bookie's margin, to name a few – the average gambler tends to lose money over time. While short-term luck might result in gains, the principle of large numbers eventually prevails, defeating even the most fortunate players. Our flawed ability to accurately assess probabilities is just one among many cognitive biases that derail us from making rational choices. Thus, it could be argued that gambling exemplifies irrational conduct. Moreover, ample evidence suggests that players fail to grasp the probabilities underlying their decisions. A prime illustration of this is the Possibility and Certainty Effects, where decision-makers give undue importance to the likelihood of rare and almost certain events, respectively. In gambling, this leads to the favorite–longshot bias, where longshots offer a relatively poorer expected value compared to favorites. This inability to accurately evaluate probabilities is a cognitive bias leading us away from rational decision-making, especially in gambling, giving rise to another significant bias: overconfidence. Overconfidence Overconfidence, or the illusion of superiority, is a cognitive distortion where individuals overvalue their own attributes and capabilities relative to others. In the competitive realm of gambling, and particularly in sports betting where individuals' analytical skills are pitted against one another, overconfidence is expectedly widespread. Referred to as the Lake Wobegon effect, named after a fictional locale in Minnesota, it highlights our innate tendency to overrate our competencies. In Lake Wobegon, the women are robust, the men are handsome, and all the children exceed average standards. This phenomenon, where the majority believe they're above average, is evident across various fields, including social standing, intellect, and driving abilities. Odds merely mirror the collective private views on the likelihood of outcomes, represented through financial stakes. The Lake Wobegon effect is notably present among sports betting advisors. According to the 1976/77 (US) College Board Student Descriptive Questionnaire, a significant portion of high-school seniors perceived themselves as above average in athleticism, leadership, and sociability, revealing a stark disconnect from reality. Who's buying when you're selling? Daniel Kahneman, in his renowned work Thinking, Fast and Slow, recounts a discussion with a Wall Street investment manager, particularly focusing on the question, "When you sell a stock, who buys it?" Essentially, what differentiates the buyer's and seller's perspectives? What insights do sellers believe they possess that buyers lack? Clearly, one party must be more mistaken than the other, unless every transaction mirrors the 'true' value, eliminating any profit. This scenario would indeed be irrational. The mutual transaction, driven by both parties' overconfidence in their ability to judge a stock's value, explains their willingness to engage. Awareness of a bookmaker's fees or the reasons behind our betting habits doesn't diminish the pleasure derived from it; rather, it steers us towards identifying expected value. Likewise in betting, odds broadly represent the likelihood of an outcome. No one would wager 1.05 (or 1/20) on Sutton United defeating Arsenal FC, irrespective of opinions on Arsène Wenger. The odds are a collective reflection of all private opinions on the outcome's probability, expressed in monetary terms. The final odds are the result of a tacit bargaining process. Both the backer (buyer) and layer (seller) naturally have an approximate price in mind that seems fair. Overconfidence then convinces both parties they've managed to secure a favorable expected value, an inherently illogical conclusion. Without such overconfidence, the wager wouldn't occur, as both parties, motivated by rational self-interest and the belief in superior information, aim to profit rather than frivolously spend money. What about those on the outside looking in? While irrationality, overconfidence and other behavioral biases may explain why we bet, it doesn’t necessarily mean they can control how we bet. With an understanding of what these behavioral biases mean and that to some degree, they influence everyone; bettors can take an “outside looking in” view. Knowing how behavioral biases influence betting decisions and being able to calculate betting margins doesn’t detract from the enjoyment it can bring, it simply sets you on the right path to finding expected value and taking a more educated approach to betting. The obvious question that arises from this article is: what is it that breeds such overconfidence in a betting context? What makes bettors so sure that they are right? Now you know how the irrationality and overconfidence will affect you while gambling. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Do you set your own odds? - Are you someone who trusts the market? - Could you have the right approach but wrong execution? - Do you only bet for entertainment? Just like there's a wide variety of sports and markets to wager on, as well as numerous bookies to place bets with, the spectrum of bettors is equally diverse. Individuals engage in betting in distinct manners and for varied motives. Regardless of your betting interests or the reasons behind them, identifying your betting persona is crucial. So, what kind of bettor are you? Continue reading to discover your betting style. While a number of folks aim to earn a living through betting, and a much smaller group actually succeeds in consistently making a profit, a significant portion of the betting community isn't particularly focused on their return on investment. This represents one common differentiation among bettors; some bet to generate income while others do so purely for entertainment. Bettors are often classified into "sharp" (those in the know) and "square" (the less informed). Yet, within these four fundamental categories of bettors, numerous sub-categories exist. Moreover, there are participants in the betting arena who don't place bets themselves but are intrigued by the mathematical or psychological aspects, viewing betting as a puzzle waiting to be solved. Bettor A: Crafting Your Own Odds The archetype of a bettor is someone who emulates what a bookie does but strives to outperform them. They leverage all relevant data and methodologies to accurately gauge the likelihood of various outcomes. The goal for such bettors is to ensure their calculated probabilities surpass those offered by the bookie. The belief that in-depth knowledge of a sport isn't essential for betting success divides bettors, as some do require sport-specific insights for their betting strategy. This breed of bettor doesn't need to examine the odds a bookie provides to determine their predictions. Rather, they employ a refined and rigorously tested model or strategy that yields its own odds for comparison with those available. When a bettor's implied probability for an event is higher than the bookie's, they've found an "edge" (a bet worth placing). Adopting this betting approach demands considerable expertise, a unique skill set, and immense perseverance and patience to achieve the aimed outcomes. Success can be found across multiple sports and markets when creating your own forecasts. However, bettors in this category often focus on specific sports or markets due to the challenges in achieving broad success, opting to target one aspect of the bookie's offerings. Evolution and adaptation are key for bettors of this type as the betting industry advances. With the market growing more complex, the traditional "handicapper" method is becoming less prevalent. Competing with bookies and other bettors now crucially involves data utilization and access. Bettors often work individually, but like others, they can collaborate and approach betting as a team effort. This might range from simple information exchange and community networking to forming a syndicate with collective funds and defined roles. Bettor B: Good Intentions, Flawed Execution In this group, many bettors are unaware of their categorization (often believing they align more with the previously mentioned bettor type). This misconception is risky, as individuals might think they're on the right track and merely unlucky when they lose (or fail to recognize their wins as fortunate). Similar to the former, these bettors employ data and might model different event outcomes to identify a potential edge. However, they falter due to the limited scope of information in their calculations, the nature of the data considered, and the insufficient time dedicated to validating these calculations. Aspiring to professional status, these bettors, regrettably, are unlikely to achieve it with their current methodology. Whether it's relying on past Handicap trends in the NFL or utilizing league and team average goals for predicting Over/Under in soccer matches, they engage in elementary analysis before wagering. Bookies spend vast resources on personnel and technology to set and adjust the odds they offer. The market is also filled with countless bettors possessing extensive data access and expert predictive modeling skills (all contributing to the bookies' odds). Believing you can spot market inefficiencies and outpace other bettors with minimal effort indicates a lack of understanding of the betting landscape and what's required for success. Bettor C: Leveraging Market Insights A common myth in the betting world is the necessity of being a sports guru to rake in profits from betting. A famous anecdote often cited is that of a trader who profited from trading "green lumber" under the misconception it referred to wood that was literally green, whereas it actually meant freshly cut timber. This tale gave rise to the "Green Lumber Fallacy," a term popularized by Nicholas Nassim Taleb in his book "Antifragile." Regardless of your bettor type, managing your finances wisely is crucial. This could mean adopting a staking plan to maximize your bankroll or simply ensuring you bet within your means. The debate over the necessity of sports knowledge for betting success is polarizing among bettors. While some rely on in-depth sports knowledge, others trust the market to offer the necessary insights. Such bettors believe in the efficiency of bookmakers' lines and start their strategy from this point. They don't aim to outdo the bookmaker in calculating outcomes for well-known markets, understanding that bookmakers allocate substantial resources and continually refine these calculations with a steady flow of betting data for major sports. Instead, these bettors scout for discrepancies between bookmakers, often leading to restrictions or bans. Or, they explore related or derivative markets within the same bookmaker that correlate to the efficient markets but show a mismatch in probabilities. For instance, they might bet on the total points in an NBA game's second quarter based on the game's overall points line set by the bookmaker, without needing to know the teams or players involved. The only requisite is the efficient game total line from the bookmaker, plus additional data (like the distribution of points across the four quarters in NBA games) to check if the quarter totals align properly. If not, it presents a value bet for this bettor type. Bettor D: Betting for the Buzz While many aim to profit from betting, for others, it's not all about the money. This doesn't mean they lack enthusiasm for a win or feel no regret over a loss; these emotions are very much a part of their betting experience. They bet for the thrill, to feel connected to the event, and to have "skin in the game." This bettor type is aware that winning is a long shot given the minimal analysis invested in their bets. They might not fully understand probabilities and might overestimate their chances of winning, but the financial outcome isn't their primary concern. Placing bets for entertainment often aims to enhance the excitement of watching the event. Bets might be straightforward, like picking the winner, placing Multiple bets across different games in a day, or prop bets on individual players. The betting amount doesn't define a recreational bettor—it could range from a modest sum to a larger stake, depending on their disposable income. This bettor type likely doesn't search for the lowest margins for the best value. They might stick with one bookmaker for the brand and overall experience, including website interaction and customer service. Key Takeaways for Every Bettor Misidentifying your bettor type can be risky. Equally important for every bettor is the prudent management of funds, whether you're betting professionally or just for fun, ensuring you only wager what you can afford. The contemporary betting landscape is more than just bettors and bookmakers. Nowadays, countless "tipsters" or "touts" offer their picks for a fee. While serious bettors recognize the limited value in these services, and those betting for fun might not want to pay more for less enjoyment, some may find these services appealing. However, generally, investing in tipster selections rarely pays off. The betting market is challenging to beat; sharing hard-earned insights for a fee, rather than betting on them directly, seems counterintuitive. With millions of bettors worldwide, it's simplistic to think everyone fits neatly into one of these categories. Most likely, bettors will resonate more with one category, occasionally shifting into others. Now you know what type of bettor you are. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- What is a progressive staking method? - Examining the profitability of the Labouchere system In the realm of sports betting, the approach to wagering is just as crucial as snagging value odds. With numerous progressive staking systems like the Labouchere system flaunting promises of boundless prosperity, is it wise to jump on the bandwagon? Here's a scholarly dig into this query. The Labouchere staking system is a progressive staking tactic whereby a gambler keeps betting until hitting a predetermined winning goal, traditionally applied in Roulette. The Labouchere staking strategy in sports betting The Labouchere model seamlessly adapts to sports betting, involving steps as follows: Fix your winning goal. Suppose you target a win of ₹7,500. Decide on splitting this amount. Imagine splitting it into five values: ₹750, ₹1,500, ₹3,000, ₹1,500, ₹750. Your bet should aim to win the sum of the outer numbers. For instance, with a Decimal odd of 3 (equivalent to +200 in American/MoneyLine), you'd bet ₹750 to win ₹1,500 (the sum of the outer numbers). A win lets you cross off the outer numbers. A loss means adding your stake to the end so you need to win back this amount. Thus, your sequence might read ₹750, ₹1,500, ₹3,000, ₹1,500, ₹750, ₹750. Continue steps 3 and 4 until you reach your target win. This method operates on the premise that winning strikes off two items, but a loss adds only one, setting a pace where you're erasing faster than adding. Let's delve into why this might not be as advantageous as it seems. To recommend or not? Engaging as they may be, I wouldn't vouch for any progressive staking tactics. Fundamentally, they encourage continuous betting until achieving a set win, disregarding the stake affordability. Imagine enduring four losses in a row at even odds; the ensuing bet would escalate to ₹3,750, notwithstanding a prior loss of ₹7,500. It's pivotal in sports betting to prioritize whether odds offer value over the potential winning amount. A kindred progressive scheme is the Fibonacci strategy, escalating stakes as per the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, etc.). An erudite standpoint From an academic angle, three notable papers have explored this strategy's efficacy in betting on draws. In 2007, Archontakis and Osborne deduced that leveraging a Fibonacci Strategy on draw bets with odds of 3, based on World Cup Finals data, could yield wins. However, tread carefully. While progressive systems inject fun, the merriment is fleeting. Yet, without utilizing actual data, another cadre of researchers examined real draw odds and their outcomes (Is the soccer betting market efficient? A cross-country investigation using the Fibonacci strategy), uncovering that in 95% of scenarios, the direst outcome with the Fibonacci approach would necessitate a stake up to 43. More contemporaneously, Lahvička challenged these strategies' success narratives, revealing that all tested versions inevitably lead to financial losses. Expect similar outcomes with any progressive system. Hence, proceed with caution. Progressive systems might be entertaining, but only as long as the enjoyment persists. Now you know what is the Labouchere staking system. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- What is expected deviation in betting? - Learn how to apply the law of large numbers to betting - The nine-toss example The Gambler's Fallacy The 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli introduced the Law of Large Numbers, illustrating how a significant sample size of an event, such as flipping a coin, more accurately reflects its true probability. Despite this knowledge being around for four centuries, many bettors fall prey to what is known as the Gambler's Fallacy. This article explores why this misconception is particularly detrimental. The Law of Large Numbers Take the simple act of flipping a fair coin, where the probability of landing on either heads or tails is equally 50%. Bernoulli demonstrated that as you increase the number of flips, the proportion of heads to tails outcomes will converge on 50%, even though the absolute difference in the count of heads versus tails will grow. "As the number of flips increases, the ratio of heads to tails will stabilize at 50%" This aspect of Bernoulli's theorem confounds many, giving rise to the term “Gambler’s Fallacy”. People often mistakenly predict that after a series of flips landing on heads, a tail is due next. However, since a coin lacks memory, the odds remain the same at each flip: a 50% chance for either outcome. Bernoulli’s findings reveal that in a vast series of fair coin flips—say, a million—the distribution of heads or tails will approximate 50%. Yet, with such a large sample, an expected deviation of about 500 from an equal split is normal. This formula helps us gauge the expected standard deviation: 0.5 × √ (1,000,000) = 500 For a large number of flips, this deviation is to be expected. However, in shorter sequences, like nine flips, this principle does not hold since the sample is too small to achieve the expected distribution, leading to potential sequences by sheer chance. Applying Distribution in Betting Understanding expected deviation has practical betting implications. It is particularly relevant in casino games like Roulette, where the misconception that sequences of outcomes (red or black, odd or even) will balance out within a session can lead to losses. This misconception is why the Gambler’s Fallacy is sometimes referred to as the Monte Carlo fallacy. A notorious instance occurred in 1913 at a Monte Carlo casino roulette table, where black appeared 26 times consecutively. After the 15th black, players increasingly bet on red, wrongly assuming the probability of another black was diminishing, a classic example of the Gambler’s Fallacy. "In 1913, a roulette table in a Monte Carlo casino saw black come up 26 times in a row. Thus, the Gambler’s Fallacy is also termed the Monte Carlo fallacy" Slot machines, essentially random number generators with a fixed Return to Player (RTP), provide another illustration. Players who have lost significant amounts may deter others from using the same machine, mistakenly believing a win is due after their losses. For this belief to hold, one would need to engage in a vastly impractical number of plays to align with the RTP. Jacob Bernoulli once posited that even the simplest mind could grasp that a larger sample size more accurately represents an event's true probability. Although his comment might seem a bit harsh, understanding the Law of Large Numbers—and dismissing the flawed average concept—spares one from being dubbed as one of Bernoulli’s 'simple-minded'. Now you know what is the gambler's fallacy. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- The Fibonacci Strategy in practice - Fibonacci Strategy Drawbacks - The Fibonacci Sequence explained Progressive betting systems in football aren't always the first choice for bettors, yet some argue they hold the key to significant earnings. We delved into the Fibonacci betting system to evaluate its profit-making potential against its risks. The core principle of the Fibonacci Strategy in football betting, introduced in 2007 by Fragiskos Archontakis and Evan Osborne, is straightforward: place your bets on draws, and if you lose, keep betting on more draws. Continue this cycle until you secure a win. Two crucial rules must be adhered to: Bet on draws only when the odds exceed 2.618, and adjust your bets according to the Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on. The rationale behind the Fibonacci betting system stems from the assumption that predicting draws is a challenging task for bookmakers, presenting an opportunity for exploitation. This strategy leverages a 1989 theory suggesting that with consistent stake increases, any win can offset prior losses. The Fibonacci Strategy in practice An examination of the 2011/12 Premier League season reveals 93 draws out of 380 matches, meaning about 24.5% ended in a tie. Intriguingly, the odds for a draw in all these matches were consistently above the 2.618 benchmark, as recommended by Archontakis and Osborne. This suggests an expected payout once every four matches, making the winning bet the fourth number in the Fibonacci sequence: 3, with an aggregate bet of £7 (summing up the three preceding losing stakes: 1, 1, and 2). Given the season's average draw odds were 4.203, the average winning amount stands at £12.61 (£3 bet times the odds), yielding a £5.61 profit after deducting the stakes. This strategy could theoretically lead to a £1786.7 profit over 380 matches, starting from a mere £1 stake. Fibonacci Strategy Drawbacks The Fibonacci betting strategy faces practical barriers that hinder its ability to generate profits effortlessly. For instance, simultaneous matches mean bettors cannot sequentially increase their stakes following a non-draw, as games conclude concurrently. An alternative might be to apply the Fibonacci sequence to bets on individual teams. The strategy's reliance on increasing stakes can significantly dent bettors' finances during prolonged drawless streaks. For example, Manchester United's 2008/09 season saw them go 20 matches without a draw, culminating in a 0-0 draw with Arsenal. Following the Fibonacci strategy, a bettor would need to wager £10,946 on the final match to adhere to the sequence. Including this bet, the total stakes would amount to £28,656, a substantial sum for typically modest returns of £21.02. Yet, the draw odds of 4.10 for that game could have resulted in £44,878.60 in winnings, translating to a £16,222.60 profit. With Fibonacci, the high stakes also come with high potential returns. The Fibonacci Sequence explained The Fibonacci sequence is a famous numerical series in mathematics, recognized for its straightforward rule: N3 = N1 + N2 This formula means that each number in the sequence (after the initial two) is the sum of its two predecessors. The sequence starts as 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, with the first few terms calculated as follows: N1 = 1, N2 = 1, hence N3 = 2 N1 = 1, N2 = 2, hence N3 = 3 N1 = 2, N2 = 3, hence N3 = 5 N1 = 3, N2 = 5, hence N3 = 8 Conclusion – Is Fibonacci Effective? The Fibonacci betting strategy, much like the sequence it's based on, is more a mathematical curiosity than a foolproof betting system. Similar to other progressive betting strategies like the Labouchère system, it operates flawlessly under theoretical conditions of infinite bankrolls and no betting limits. However, when faced with the realities of limited resources and bookmaker restrictions, the Fibonacci method encounters the same uncertainties as all betting systems. Taking the aforementioned Man Utd scenario as an example, a bettor would need to risk a total of £28,656 across 21 instances for a chance at a £16,222 profit. Lacking the £10,946 for the crucial final bet would leave one significantly out of pocket, with no guarantees of a return. Given that every bettor faces their financial limits or restrictions from bookmakers, the Fibonacci sequence's indefinite continuation is impractical, making it an unreliable strategy for long-term profitability. Now you know what is the Fibonacci betting system. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- How to bet on Teasers - Teasers betting explained - Teaser bet examples - Teaser bet rules Teasers betting is a sophisticated option not universally known among bettors, but it provides an opportunity to enhance the likelihood of success in multi-selection bets, albeit with diminished odds. How do Teaser bets operate, their reward structure, and the offerings of 7x7Bets in Teasers betting? Continue reading for insights. Teasers Betting Explained Teasers betting involves the bettor receiving a predetermined favorable point adjustment for each choice within a multi-selection wager, with the bet also assigned a fixed payout. Teaser Bet Example Consider a six-point Teaser bet on Super Bowl LIV between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers: For example, betting on the Handicap for the Kansas City Chiefs would shift from a +2.5 underdog to a +8.5 underdog, significantly enhancing the chance of winning this choice. Similarly, the Handicap for the San Francisco 49ers would move from -2.5 favorites to +3.5 underdogs. For Over/Under wagers, Teaser bets create two distinct markets to bolster your bet. In this case, an Over/Under set at 45.5 would shift to Over 39.5 and Under 51.5, effectively improving your winning odds by six points in either direction. However, this advantage comes with a reduced and fixed payout. A €100 Multi bet on either team to win on the Handicap in one game and the Over/Under in another would typically yield about €365 (€265 profit), based on -110 / 1.909 odds for each selection. Yet, the same bet with a six-point Teaser would result in a lower payout with the same combined odds, where a €100 wager would win €190.90 (€90.90 profit). What Teasers Betting Does 7x7Bets Offer? 7x7Bets provides markets for football and basketball teasers, incorporating Handicap and Over/Under markets. Football Teaser Bets 7x7Bets presents three primary markets for football Teaser betting: NFL Same Game: Teaser bets of 6, 6.5, and 7 points for selections within the same NFL game. NFL/College 2 - 6 Team: Teaser bets of 6, 6.5, and 7 points for selections spanning two to six NFL and/or NCAA football teams. Super Teasers: Ten-point Teaser bets for selections on three NFL and/or NCAA teams, and 13-point Teaser bets for selections on four NFL and/or NCAA football teams. The payout structure for football Teaser bets at 7x7Bets is as follows: Football Teaser bet payouts Basketball Teaser Bets 7x7Bets offers two main markets for basketball Teaser betting: General basketball Teaser bets: Teaser bets of 4, 4.5, and 5 points for selections involving two to six NBA, WNBA, and/or NCAA basketball teams. NBA Super Teasers: Seven-point Teaser bets for selections involving two to six NBA teams. The payout structure for basketball Teaser bets at 7x7Bets is as follows: Basketball Teaser bet payouts Teasers Betting Rules: Things to Consider When engaging in Teaser betting with 7x7Bets, several considerations are crucial, particularly regarding tie occurrences in your selections or actions deemed non-actionable. Teaser Bet Ties In instances of ties in football and basketball Teaser bets involving three or more teams, the selection(s) are omitted, and the payout is adjusted accordingly. For example, a Teaser bet with four teams would be reduced to three teams. For two-team Teaser bets in football and basketball, where at least one selection is a tie or considered non-actionable, the entire bet is deemed a push, and all stakes are refunded. Similarly, for any Super Teaser bet selection resulting in a tie or considered non-actionable, the entire bet is graded as non-actionable, and all stakes are refunded, regardless of the number of teams involved. Teaser Bet Base Handicap Adjustments Occasionally, the point adjustment for Teaser bets may differ from expectations if the base Handicap for a Teaser has shifted. This variation occurs as 7x7Bets may adjust base Handicaps to manage exposure and limit the availability of unlimited Teaser bets at certain odds. For instance, if an NFL game set the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks at Handicaps of -7.5 and +7.5 respectively, 7x7Bets might shift the base Handicap to 9.5 for six-point Teaser bets. Consequently, the Teaser bet Handicaps would be set at Green Bay Packers -3.5 and Seattle Seahawks +3.5, contrary to the -1.5 and +1.5 expected under the original setup. Now you know what is the Teasers Betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- What is a Money Line bet? - How does Money Line betting work? - Money Line betting strategy Money Line betting stands as the go-to for many new to sports betting, given its straightforward nature. Yet, even the seasoned bettors sift through this market for hidden gems of value. Wondering about the essence of a Money Line bet and its mechanics? Let’s dive in. What is a Money Line bet? In essence, Money Line betting simplifies the betting process to its core, offering a duo of options in a market for punters. To wager on a Money Line bet, just pick your winner and back them. It’s akin to betting on the "match winner". Securing a win with your Money Line bet means backing the victorious team or individual. Conversely, a loss for your chosen side spells a loss for your bet too. Calculating potential returns is straightforward: multiply your stake by the decimal odds of your chosen option. How does Money Line betting work? Prevalent in sports like baseball, tennis, and UFC, Money Line betting also finds its place in NBA and NFL bets, albeit less so due to the high-scoring nature of these games which favors other betting forms like Totals or Handicap. Money Line bets shine in matchups where a draw isn’t an outcome, though it’s not unheard of in soccer or similar sports that might end in a draw, either as a three-way Money Line market or a modified two-way market that discounts the draw, returning your stake in such an event. Diversifying your betting strategy beyond just Money Line, Handicap, or Over/Under bets can enrich your betting experience. Focusing solely on the match result, Money Line bets are unaffected by winning margins or points scored. Odds reflect the probabilities of each outcome, with favorites and underdogs clearly marked. The interaction between Handicap betting and Money Line bets is noteworthy; a high Handicap on a favorite implies a stronger likelihood of their victory, affecting the odds significantly. Handicap betting becomes appealing when you’re confident in a team’s victory margin, offering potentially greater rewards than a straightforward Money Line bet. What is the difference between the Money Line and 1X2 betting markets? As previously mentioned, the difference between the Money Line and 1X2 betting markets might appear to be a relatively minor difference, but it will have a big impact on the odds you bet with and the result of your bet. The key difference between the two market types is the availability of the draw option. The Money Line traditionally only offers two options, Team/Player A to win and Team/Player B to win. However, the 1X2 market (most common in soccer) has both of these options, plus the draw. Some people believe the difference is simply down to a preference of terminology, and that is why it’s important to know what you’re betting on if you’re talking about the Money Line if a draw is a potential outcome. You need to determine if it’s another way to refer to the 1X2 market (a three-way Money Line) or the traditional Money Line that doesn’t include the draw. If you’re betting on the 1X2 and think it’s a normal Money Line bet, you will be in for a surprise when your stake isn’t refunded if the result is a draw. Money Line bet example While the concept of a Money Line bet is simple to understand, it can still be useful to go through an example to help those new to betting. Below is an example of a Money Line market for an NFL game. These odds suggest the Kansas City Chiefs have a 79.56% chance of winning the game, whereas the Houston Texans have a 20.44% chance.If you believe the Houston Texans will win, or have a greater than 20.44% chance of winning, you may want to place a Money Line bet on them.You then simply add the selection to your bet slip and place the bet. If the Houston Texans beat the Kansas City Chiefs, this would result in a win for your bet and a return of €47.40 (€37.40 profit and your €10 stake).If the Chiefs were to beat the Texans, the result of the bet would be a loss and it would return €0. Money Line betting strategy: When to bet the Money Line Once you understand how Money Line betting works, there are various methods or strategies you can use to decide what to bet on.Those who bet for fun may just choose their favourite team or the team that, based on their opinion, they think has the best chance of winning.However, those who are serious about betting will be more concerned with the concept of value and will want to bet on the team that has been underestimated by the odds provided by the bookmaker. If your aim is to use a Money Line betting strategy to make a long-term profit, an understanding of probability is key. This is where converting odds into percentage chance can help give you a better idea of how the bookmaker (and rest of the betting market) think a game will play out. Betting odds explained: How do odds work? Whether through complex models, power rankings, or odds comparison, the quest for value remains constant. It’s about finding market options with a higher likelihood of occurring than the odds suggest. This approach encourages a broad analysis of betting markets, aiding informed decision-making. By weaving in local lingo and ensuring clarity in explanation, this rephrased article aims to cater to an Indian audience, maintaining the original structure while subtly enhancing its SEO value on the topic of "What is Money Line Betting." Now you know what is money line betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- ROI explained - What influences betting odds? - How to calculate ROI The primary aim for any sports gambler is ideally to end up with a larger amount of money than they initially had. It's a given that not every wager will be a win, but if we manage to secure enough wins to cover our losses, the earnings from our victories should hopefully surpass what we've lost. In simpler terms, we aspire for our overall returns to exceed our total bets. The real question then becomes, what constitutes a satisfactory return on investment in the realm of sports betting? What is ROI? Delving into this question isn't exactly straightforward. While it isn't as ambiguous as the length of a piece of string, several factors need to be taken into account. To start with, it's evident that the more bets we place, leading to a higher volume of money being staked, the potential for either significant profit or loss increases. To gauge this more effectively, it would be beneficial to have a benchmark for comparing different betting records, which vary in the number of bets and the stakes involved. It's clear that every bettor's approach is unique. The commonly used metric for this comparison is the Return On Investment (ROI), expressed in percentage terms. Occasionally, you might come across terms like Profit Over Turnover (POT) or yield, which essentially mean the same thing. Calculating the ROI is straightforward: it involves dividing the total returns received by the bettor by the total amount they have wagered. For example, if a bettor has placed bets totaling INR 1,00,000 and now possesses INR 1,05,000 after accounting for all wins and losses, their ROI would be INR 1,05,000/INR 1,00,000 = 1.05 or 105%. With a net profit of INR 5,000, the profit over turnover then becomes INR 5,000/INR 1,00,000 = 0.05 or 5%. This figure is also referred to as the yield. Connecting the two, we get: POT = ROI – 1 (or 100%). It's apparent that employing metrics like ROI or POT enables the comparison of bettors with varying betting strategies or volumes. For instance, one bettor might risk INR 100 on every bet and, after 500 bets resulting in returns of INR 6,00,000, would demonstrate an ROI of 120% (POT = 20%). Another might wager INR 1,00,000 on each bet, and after 10,000 bets yielding returns of INR 12 crore, would exhibit the same ROI (and POT) as the former. Though the latter has garnered a much higher absolute profit, ROI (and POT) metrics facilitate a comparison of their success levels, attributable either to skill or fortune. Length of betting history Is an ROI of 120% consistently as commendable as another instance of 120% ROI? The answer is no, for two primary reasons. Sports bettors have the opportunity to replace bias with skill. The first reason pertains to the length of the betting history, not in terms of time but as the total number of bets placed. All betting activities, similar to coin flips, are governed by probability laws. If a coin is flipped 10 times resulting in six heads, would we deduce that the coin is biased towards heads? Highly unlikely. Conversely, if it's flipped 1,000 times with 600 instances of heads, only someone in denial would believe the coin isn't biased. A longer record increases the likelihood that a deviation from expected outcomes stems from factors beyond mere chance. In the case of coin flips, a biased coin is to blame; for sports bettors, this deviation can be attributed to skill. To further illustrate, consider two betting records where all odds are 2.00 (implying a 50% chance of winning), deemed fair and devoid of any bookmaker margin. Both bettors have achieved a 105% return (or a 5% yield). The only difference lies in the volume of bets: the first has placed 250 bets, while the second has placed 2,500. The diagram below showcases the potential outcomes each bettor might encounter due to luck (chance), assuming neither possesses any skill. The first bettor's range of outcomes (250 bets) is depicted by the blue curve, with their actual 5% yield marked by a vertical black line. Observing the blue curve's areas to the left and right of this line represents the chances of achieving a yield lower or higher than 5% (105% ROI) due to luck. The right side corresponds to about a 21.5% probability of the bettor outperforming their actual results if fortune had been more favorable. This likelihood is too significant to conclusively attribute their success to skill. Conversely, the second bettor's possibilities with 2,500 bets are represented by the orange curve. Despite achieving a 5% yield (105% ROI) like the first, the odds of surpassing this performance are much slimmer, less than 1%. Sure, one might still argue their success is down to sheer luck, but it's a harder case to make compared to the first bettor. For the second bettor, it's more plausible to believe other factors, aside from luck, are at play. Assuming no foul play, the most logical explanation would be skill. This brings us to our initial factor in evaluating the quality of an ROI. In the given example, although both ROIs are identical, the second bettor's is considered superior as it's more justifiable to attribute their success to skill rather than luck. As the saying goes, luck eventually runs out; only skill can consistently pave the way for future gains. When all is said and done, among two bettors with equivalent yields, the one with an extensive betting record is deemed superior. Influence of the betting odds Certainly, in the realm of sports betting, not all variables remain constant, with the odds offered on bets standing out as a notable factor that differentiates one bettor's strategy from another's. Let's explore this by comparing two bettors who engage in betting at different odds, akin to our examination of their betting history lengths. Bettors who specialize in Asian Handicap or US point spread typically engage with odds around 2.000. Conversely, specialists in win-only horse racing may find their average betting odds soaring to 10.000 or even beyond. Intuitively, we might wonder about the implications of such differences in odds. Let's delve into this. Consider two bettors presented below, both with a betting history spanning 2,500 wagers. Probability theory helps us visualize their potential performance outcomes through the blue curve (odds = 10.000) and the orange curve (odds = 2.000). Examining the areas under these curves relative to the yield = 5% line highlights a key insight. Betting at higher odds can indeed result in more significant positive returns. Despite having identical bet counts, achieving a 5% yield by chance alone is far more likely for the bettor wagering at odds of 10, a phenomenon attributed to the higher impact of luck on lower-probability events. Engaging in bets at these higher odds could yield greater returns (and yields) purely through fortune. However, the opposite scenario, influenced by misfortune, is equally plausible, as depicted above. Remarkably, for the bettor engaged at odds of 10.000 to emulate the slim likelihood of realizing a 5% yield (or superior) akin to their counterpart betting at odds of 2.000, their betting history would need to extend to approximately 22,000 bets! This introduces a second crucial consideration in assessing the merit of an ROI. All else being equal, the more commendable achievement is that of a bettor who attains a given yield at lower odds. This leads to the inference that superior yields (ROIs) are anticipated from bettors engaged at longer odds, provided their skill levels match those betting at shorter odds. While these yields may be more substantial, they don't necessarily signify a higher degree of skill. Without considering both the betting odds and the length of betting history, drawing comparisons between the yields of two distinct bettors to discern evidence of skill becomes an inequitable endeavor. Likelihood as a measure of betting skill Returning to our initial inquiry, what constitutes a commendable ROI? It's evident that the quality of an ROI (or yield) is influenced by both the betting history's length and the betting odds' magnitude. In our analysis, we approached this by evaluating the likelihood of witnessing a specific outcome within the full spectrum of possible outcomes. Hence, comparing these likelihoods offers a more refined method for assessing the performances of two bettors than simply looking at ROI alone. This is because the likelihood of a particular outcome serves as a meaningful indicator of the bettor's underlying skill. This enables a clearer understanding of the ROIs one might expect from bettors operating at various odds. The two charts below, considering likelihood levels of 10%, 1%, and 0.1% happening by chance, help illustrate this point. It's crucial, however, to note that these likelihood percentages do not directly translate to a 90%, 99%, or 99.9% certainty of the bettor's skill. This is a qualitative, rather than quantitative, correlation. The first chart encompasses odds typically encountered across a broad range of sports betting markets, favored by many bettors. For instance, a bettor whose outcomes manifest with only a 1% chance likelihood (depicted by the red line), is expected to yield about 5% (ROI = 105%) from odds of 1.5. A bettor of similar skill engaging at odds of 3.000 is projected to achieve a yield exceeding 10%. Extending this analysis to significantly longer odds, as shown in the second chart, caters to markets featuring a larger pool of competitors, such as win-only bets in golf and horse racing. Here, the same bettor, when betting at odds of 20.000, would likely exhibit a yield surpassing 35% (ROI = 135%). This suggests that a bettor not demonstrating such substantial yields at these extended odds lacks the skill level of their counterpart betting at shorter odds, indicated by their position below the red odds-yield curve. To contextualize, it's roughly tenfold more likely for a bettor to achieve a 15% yield from odds of 5.000 than an equivalent yield from odds of 3.000, with this likelihood increasing tenfold again for odds of 14.000. Conclusion The landscape of betting ROIs is nuanced. A bettor boasting an ROI double that of another does not necessarily equate to superior skill. Higher yields can indeed stem from not only shorter betting histories but also engagements at longer odds. While a substantial yield may offer immediate gratification, the true determinant of sustainable profitability is the bettor's skill level. Through this exploration into the concept of likelihood, the aim is to provide a deeper comprehension of what signifies a commendable ROI in sports betting. Now you know what is a good ROI in sports betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!