Search

- Our idea of the future is based on the past - How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? - Superforecasters & the Good Judgement Project - 10 Commandments of good prediction The anticipation surrounding the Mayweather vs. McGregor match is unparalleled due to its unique nature, sparking widespread discussion and conjecture. This scenario creates a conundrum for those attempting to forecast the result, as traditional predictive methods rely heavily on historical precedents to gauge future outcomes. In such cases, bettors can benefit from a methodology devised by a Nobel Laureate in physics. How to make predictions? Predictions is inherently a data-driven science. Possessing a wealth of historical data enhances the likelihood of devising a predictive model that accurately foresees future scenarios. Innovation in prediction occurs when new variables influencing an event are identified within a dataset, enabling the refinement of forecasts beyond current theories. This is evident in domains like meteorology and outright bets on the Premier League. Absent historical data, qualitative analysis becomes essential, involving structured speculation about future events. While seemingly rudimentary, the application of scientific principles, such as the Fermi method, elevates this approach. Enrico Fermi, a pioneering physicist and Nobel Prize recipient, is celebrated for his seminal contributions to nuclear physics and for developing a practical technique for making swift estimations on seemingly incalculable problems due to limited data. The absence of data necessitates a qualitative analytical approach, where logical arguments predict potential outcomes. This approach, although appearing simplistic, gains credibility through the Fermi method. Fermi challenged his pupils with thought-provoking questions to illustrate this technique: How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? Approaching this question encourages the formulation of a logical argument based on estimations and sub-questions, leading to an educated guess without immediate access to search engines. If you asked yourself the following sub-questions (or followed a similar logic but with slightly different questions) you would arrive at a good idea of the answer. How many pianos are there in Chicago? How often is a piano tuned each year? How long does it take to tune a piano? How many hours a year does the average piano tuner work? Using your guesses for the first three questions you can calculate how many piano-tuning work hours there might be in Chicago annually and divide it by the number of hours a tuner might work in a year to arrive at a reasonable guess of how many pianos that would support. Of course to inform questions one, two and three you have to break them down into further sub-questions. So for question one you would need to guess Chicago’s population using any knowledge of other US cities’ populations. You might guess somewhere between 2-2.5 million (it is actually listed as 2.7 million in 2016). You then need to work out what percentage of people own a piano, which by rule of thumb could be one for every 100 (around 25,000 if you use the upper guess for population). Then throw in a value for bars, clubs, schools etc. so you might double the penetration to say two in every 100 or 50,000. Questions two and three are simple intuition, unless of course you have domain knowledge. A piano is tuned around once a year and takes roughly two hours. Question four could be based on your own experience or an average full-time job working five days a week with standard holidays. So if you guess that there are 50,000 pianos needing tuning once a year, taking two hours each to tune, that represents 100,000 tuning hours. Divide that by the 1,600 hours worked on average per year by a tuner and you would arrive at 62.5 piano tuners in Chicago. There is no definitive answer, though analysis of yellow pages (courtesy of Daniel Levitin) came up with 83, including duplicates, so if you got somewhere between 55 and 70 you are doing well. Don’t stress too much about the accuracy of the answer as much as the approach you took. This kind of a mindset is conducive to accurate forecasting in the absence of data - similar to Mayweather vs. McGregor betting. If you didn’t quite understand how to approach this question, read the rest of the article then try again with another abstract question. The piano tuner question has been used by Google, for example, as an interview question - helping to establish reasoning skill - along with similar questions like ‘How much does the Empire State Building weigh?’ Bookmakers aren’t in the business of making predictions; they simply offer a measurement of how likely something is to happen, represented in the form of odds. In that respect, we are on safer ground with established sports that follow a fixed set of rules and have good solid and accessible historical data. Superforecasters - The Good Judgement Project The art of prediction, as elaborated in "Super-Forecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction" by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, gains depth through the lens of the Good Judgement Project (GJP). This initiative explores the evolution of predictive science, offering invaluable insights. For over four years, Tetlock rallied around “20,000 intellectually curious individuals” to partake in the GJP, aiming to project the outcomes of various global predicaments. This endeavor was part of a broader mission led by IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity), a segment of the US intelligence community, focusing on refining forecast accuracy regarding pivotal political and economic incidents affecting national security. IARPA organized a forecasting contest that grouped five teams, including the GJP, spearheaded by top-notch researchers in the field. Throughout five years, nearly 500 queries were posed, demanding daily responses from the participants. The precision of these forecasts was gauged using Brier Scores, a metric that calculates the discrepancy between the forecast certainty and the actual result. Introducing a confidence measure for each forecast encourages a balanced approach to confidence, distinguishing the adept predictors effectively. Unlike traditional bookmaking, which doesn't entail making predictions but rather setting odds that reflect an event's likelihood, 7x7Bets stands on more familiar ground with conventional sports, thanks to the abundance of historical data and established rules. To attract new clients and retain current ones, 7x7Bets expands its horizons beyond traditional sports, venturing into emerging or less conventional sports where historical records are scant, such as eSports, specials, and elections. The rarity and varying conditions of elections render historical data almost obsolete. Poll reliability issues and the complexities of news dependency often thwart accurate political betting. The Maiden Conundrum Maiden horse races present another instance where predicting outcomes is notably challenging, serving as an informative case despite 7x7Bets not offering horse racing bets. Maiden races for two-year-olds, featuring horses with no previous wins, lack substantial form data. The brief nature of these races leaves minimal room for error, complicating predictions for horses making their debut on the track. How do you predict the talent of a horse that has never run, in a race where success (from the trainer/owner perspective) may be measured in terms of simply giving their runner a positive experience of racing? You ask a set of deductive questions that follow the Piano Tuner Problem. How good is the horse’s breeding? How successful is the breeder? What about the trainer? Their record with first-time out winners, and over the same course distance? What about the jockey’s record in Maidens? These deductive questioning method helps in estimating a horse's odds of success, ideally synthesizing these factors into an overall rating and utilizing Brier Scores for a precise confidence evaluation against market odds. Thus, these seemingly unsolvable challenges offer unique opportunities for gamblers, as bookmakers, equipped with only their expertise and a Fermi-like strategy, navigate these uncertainties without reliance on mathematical models. The 10 commandments for good prediction The challenges that the GJP faced are no different to those faced by bettors and bookmakers when they move away from traditional sports markets into the realms of exotic bets which brings us back to Mayweather vs. McGregor. We have a reasonable idea about handicapping Boxing and MMA, but a boxer vs. a mixed martial artist essentially opens up a Fermi type problem (bettors can try and solve using the live odds and odds movement chart below). The good news here is, based on the findings of the GJP, there are some very practical things that were experimentally proven to raise the base level of predictions of these amateur forecasters. Tetlock has actually distilled 10 commandments of good prediction based on the experience of the GJP. More detail can be found at www.goodjudgementproject.com - better still read the book - but here they are (adapted in short-form) and applied to betting and where applicable, the Mayweather vs. McGregor question. Using randomized trials Tetlock established that those reading a guidebook containing these tenets increased their Brier Score by 10%. That could be enough to move you into long-term profitability as a bettor. Focus on problems where your hard work is more likely to pay off, ignoring both the obvious and the intractable. There is little chance of you discovering something about the Premier League that isn’t already accounted for by the market. Find a realistic level - a Goldilocks Zone - where it is realistic to assume value can be found with reasonable time and effort. Break big chunky problems into a series of smaller ones. For example ‘Who will win between Mayweather and McGregor?’ Might it become “What boxing form does McGregor have?” “What are their respective motivations?” “What style does McGregor fight, and what is Mayweather’s success-rate against that style?” and so on. Assign values and a degree of confidence to your answers. Balance inside and outside views. In respect of Mayweather-McGregor that requires you to step outside of a boxing or MMA only assessment. McGregor has a huge following within the MMA community, who are no doubt backing him in large numbers, but is their inside view valuable here? Equally, how much do boxing purists know about MMA? Trying balancing both views. Balance over/under compensation for new information. This basically encourages a Bayesian approach of incorporating new evidence, but equally cautions against over-reacting to new information, as much as sticking to your guns. This relies on experience and weighing the value of the source of information. A huge amount will be said online about this fight, so spend time figuring the best sources of information. Challenge your prejudices. If you know your boxing and can’t see past a Mayweather win, challenge yourself to think of any scenarios in which he might lose, and vice-versa. Translate hunches into degrees of probability. An experienced forecaster will have a wider language than ‘Mayweather is a certainty’ or ‘McGregor has no chance.’ Their approach will reflect a more nuanced assessment measured in probability, not rhetoric. Learn to balance over/under confidence. This means striking a balance between procrastination to the point of inaction - and missing an opportunity, going all-in without making a measured assessment. Analyze both failures and successes with the same rigour. What is worse than being wrong, is not taking ownership for where the mistake was. Equally, you can make the right decisions and still get the wrong result and vice versa. Bring out the best in others and let others bring out the best in you. This relates to the Team nature of the GJP, so will only be relevant if you are working as part of a syndicate or perhaps if you are very active on Social Media and willing to share your work and accept/give constructive criticism. Improvement only comes from putting your good intentions into practice. It is fine to see betting as recreation, just don’t expect to win in the long run. If you aren’t happy with that prognosis accept that you will have to commit time and effort to betting in a systematic and structured way. Now you know how to make prediction without data. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Calculating 1X2 odds’ margin in two simple steps - Comparing bookmaker’s margin Understanding the margin a bookmaker adds to betting odds is crucial for bettors aiming to boost their long-term gains. Bettors benefit more from lower margins, as higher margins can significantly reduce profits. This guide explains how to effortlessly calculate the margins on 1X2 odds. Experienced bettors prioritize understanding the true cost of their bets, which lies in the margins applied to the odds, rather than just comparing the odds themselves. Our Margin Calculator provides an easy method to determine the margin on any given bet. Consider a soccer match with three possible outcomes: home win, away win, or draw. For the Premier League's opening week of the 2016/17 season, 7x7Bets listed Hull City's victory at the KCOM Stadium against Leicester City at odds of 3.41, with Leicester at 2.39 and the draw at 3.19. Calculate margin: how to calculate 1X2 odds’ margin in two simple steps Transform the odds for all three outcomes into decimal probabilities. Apply the formula: Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1 Step One: The initial step to calculating margins for 1X2 odds is converting each market option into a decimal chance of winning, represented by (1/Odds). For Hull City, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (indicating a 29.3% chance of winning). The probability for a draw is (1/3.19) = 0.313, and for Leicester, it is (1/2.39) = 0.418. Step Two: Insert the calculated probabilities into the formula to determine the margin. Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1, equating to a margin of 0.024 or 2.4%. Comparing bookmaker’s margin Another well-known bookmaker offers odds of 3.10 for Hull City, 2.10 for Leicester, and 2.90 for a draw, resulting in a significantly higher margin of 12%. This margin is over five times greater than that of 7x7Bets. In real terms, betting $100 on Hull City to win in the 1X2 market would yield $31 more with 7x7Bets compared to placing the same bet with another leading online bookmaker. At 7x7Bets, we are committed not only to providing the best odds but also to educating bettors on making more informed betting choices. We invite you to verify our margins against those of other bookmakers and see for yourself who offers the best online sports betting deal. Thanks to our innovative risk management model, 7x7Bets consistently offers better value than many competitors. Now you know how to calculate margin for soccer. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Get to grips with a basic Expected Value formula - Learn how to work out whether you should make a bet or not Understanding the Expected Value (EV) of a bet is crucial as it indicates the average amount one can expect to win or lose per bet. This calculation is invaluable for bettors when evaluating the odds offered by bookmakers. How does one calculate the Expected Value in sports betting to forecast potential earnings? Continue reading to discover. Consider a straightforward instance of Expected Value in action: if you wager $10 on heads in a coin flip and you're set to win $11 each time you guess correctly, the EV stands at 0.5. This signifies that by consistently betting $10 on heads, you're poised to gain, on average, $0.50 per bet. How to Calculate Expected Value The Expected Value formula is straightforward: multiply the probability of winning by the amount you could win per bet, then subtract the product of the probability of losing and the amount lost per bet: (Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet) To deduce the EV for sports betting, insert decimal odds into the formula after conducting a few simple calculations: Identify the decimal odds for each possible outcome (win, lose, draw). Calculate the potential earnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal odds, then subtract the stake. Convert the odds of an outcome into its probability by dividing 1 by the decimal odds. Plug this data into the formula provided above. For instance, in a match where Manchester United (1.263) faces Wigan (13.500), with the odds of a draw at 6.500, placing a $10 bet on Wigan yields potential earnings of $125, given a winning probability of 0.074 or 7.4%. The likelihood of this outcome not happening equals the combined probabilities of a Manchester United win or a draw, which is 0.792 + 0.154 = 0.946. The amount lost per bet is the initial $10 stake. Thus, the formula elaborates to: (0.074 x $125) – (0.946 x $10) = -$0.20 Here, the EV is negative, implying an average loss of $0.20 for every $10 wagered. How Does Expected Value for Sports Betting Help? It's important to note that a negative EV doesn't necessarily predict a loss. Since sports betting odds are subjective, outsmarting the bookmaker could lead to profits. If your calculated probability for a match deviates from the odds' implied probability, identifying a positive EV becomes possible, indicating a more favorable chance of winning. For example, if the odds suggest Wigan has a 7.4% chance of winning, but your calculations (perhaps through a Poisson distribution) give them a 10% chance, the EV for betting on Wigan rises to $3.262. EV is also an excellent metric for comparing odds in arbitrage betting, a topic we explore in our article on arbitrage betting. Calculating EV offers bettors insight into their bookmaker's value. While low-margin bookmakers like 7x7Bets typically have EVs close to -$0.20, it's not rare for other bookmakers to present an EV of -$1.00 – meaning a likely loss of $1 for every $10 bet. Now you know how to calculate expected value. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- What is the betting odds’ margin? - How to calculate the betting odds margin Navigating through a sea of bookmakers boasting the best odds, alongside countless websites comparing these odds, may leave you questioning whether you're genuinely snagging the best deal. This guide demystifies how odds operate, empowering you to make well-informed decisions in pursuit of the most favorable betting odds. Before placing your next bet, understand the true cost of your wager. Bookies profit by accepting wagers on various outcomes, manipulating odds to entice bets in proportions that guarantee a profit, regardless of the event's result. This entails offering odds that exceed the genuine statistical likelihood of the event, with this surplus reflecting the bookmaker's margin - essentially, the fee charged by the bookmaker for providing the betting service. What is the betting odds’ margin? Consider the coin toss scenario to grasp margins. Imagine betting €10 with a friend, aiming to win €10. A Heads means you win €10; Tails, and you're €10 down. In this situation, neither party has an edge, as the presented odds (2.0 in Decimal, +100 in American) accurately mirror the event's true probability (0.5). To identify the margin a bookmaker adds to a match, consider the odds for all outcomes. A higher margin diminishes value for the bettor, making margins a crucial metric for comparing odds. This is known as a 100% market or book, signifying no margin advantage to either the bettor or bookmaker. Hence, a 100% market is one with zero margin. However, betting with a bookmaker aiming for profit means the market percentage will exceed 100%. The margin above 100% indicates the bookmaker's advantage or the cost they charge for their services. This model underpins all bookmaking operations. For bettors, understanding the margin their chosen bookmaker applies is vital, as it affects the odds' value and potential betting profit. To easily calculate a bet's margin, consider using 7x7Bets' Margin Calculator. How to calculate the betting odds margin To calculate a bookmaker's margin, you must consider the odds for all potential outcomes. New bettors might wonder why the odds for all outcomes matter if they're betting on just one. Betting value encompasses the entire market, factoring in the odds for all outcomes. A higher margin means lower value for the bettor, highlighting why margins are essential for accurate odds comparison. This importance grows with long-term betting, where the margin impacts cumulative profit potential. For a two-way market, like tennis, the margin can be determined using the formula: (1/Decimal Odds Option A)*100 + (1/Decimal Odds Option B)*100 Consider a theoretical match between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to calculate the odds' margin: Rafael Nadal 1.926 Roger Federer 2.020 (1/1.926)*100 + (1/2.02*100) = 51.92 + 49.51 = 101.43% Market This yields a margin of 1.43%, illustrating the cost of placing bets through bookmakers and highlighting the importance of choosing those with the lowest margins to enhance betting value. Now you know how to calculate betting margins. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Finding the average number of goals per game - Calculating Over/Under market goals probabilities - Determining which odds are worth betting on - Soccer data and insights Soccer bettors often search for more lucrative markets beyond the conventional 1X2, where unpredictable events like a lack of goals or a late equalizer can undermine even the most insightful predictions. A promising strategy to outsmart bookmakers in soccer betting involves the Over/Under goals markets. This guide outlines a straightforward approach to calculating goal probabilities and translating them into odds, helping bettors make informed decisions on what to wager on and what to bypass. Step 1: Find the average number of goals per game in over/under markets Compared to many sports, soccer typically features fewer scoring events, making it entirely possible for a match to end without any goals. For this reason, bookmakers, including 7x7Bets, meticulously analyze the average goals per match of the teams involved when setting odds for Over/Under markets. If 7x7Bets offers Over 2.5 goals in a Premier League match at 1.925, and you find another bookie with odds of 1.800 for the same bet, it's clear 7x7Bets offers the better deal. But how do you decide if it's worth betting on this market in the first place? A smart starting point is to adopt the bookmakers' method by determining the average number of goals per game for both teams in the match you're interested in. Finding this data is typically straightforward with a bit of research online. To give an example, here are the average goals per game across various major soccer leagues and tournaments over the last seven seasons: As illustrated, major soccer leagues and competitions have generally averaged between 2.5 to 3 goals per game in recent times, though it's wise to evaluate each league or competition individually. For example, the Mongolian Premier League recently averaged 5.23 goals per game, while the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League saw only 1.94 goals per match. Step 2: Calculate the probabilities The unpredictable nature of scoring in soccer allows the application of a Poisson distribution as a basic model for predicting Over/Under betting outcomes. Understanding what this means in practice is crucial. John Haigh's "Taking Chances" includes a table outlining the probabilities of a team scoring a range of goals based on their average goals per game: For a match where the home team has averaged 1.2 goals per game and the away side have averaged 0.8, it is easy to determine the probability for under 2.5 goals occuring by using the above table. Firstly, determine the correct scores that will lead to a winning under 2.5 goals bet (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2). You can then find the respective probabilities for each team from the above table and mutiply them together to calculate the probability for each scoreline: Since we know the individual probabilities of each potential score that can lead to under 2.5 goals occurring, we can add them together to get the overall probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals and, therefore, a winning under 2.5 goals bet. In this example, that would be: 13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.5% Step 3: Determine what odds are worth betting on Once you have established the statistical probability of the match to end in less than 2.5 goals, you are then in a position to determine which odds you should accept. To convert probability into decimal odds, you use the following simple formula: Decimal odds = 100 / probability Applying this to a 67.56% chance gives decimal odds of 1.48. Therefore, betting on under 2.5 goals is advisable only if you find odds exceeding 1.48. While this method doesn’t guarantee a win, it does furnish a straightforward betting strategy with a positive expected value, likely leading to profits over time by balancing long-term gains and losses. Conducting this analysis before betting on Over/Under goals lets you enjoy the game, confident in the knowledge that you’ve maximized your chances of a successful wager. Now you know the over/under market. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- How do odds work? - The basics of probability - How to calculate betting odds - Calculating a bookmaker’s margin Everyone embarking on their betting adventure often grapples with the fundamental question: How do odds work? Grasping this concept is crucial for betting success, yet it's merely the beginning of a comprehensive betting education. Let’s dive into why understanding odds is essential for every bettor. Seasoned bettors frequently engage in conversations with peers curious about placing casual bets on major sports events. Queries like "What are the odds of x happening?" "How do these odds translate?" and "What are my winnings for a bet of x amount?" are common. Responses to such questions, while varying in detail, revolve around the principle of probability. What do odds represent? Odds can be displayed in decimal, fractional, or American formats by bookmakers, yet they all serve the same purpose. They represent the likelihood of an event occurring. The diversity in odds formats - be it American, Decimal, or Fractional - underscores that odds are a tool for facilitating betting. Bookmakers, including 7x7Bets, essentially manage risk as quantified by probability. Betting entails evaluating the likelihood of an event's occurrence, with bookmakers like 7x7Bets utilizing odds to convey implied probability in a practical format for betting. Understanding implied probability not only aids in comparing odds across bookmakers but also underscores the importance of comprehending how to calculate probability for a holistic grasp of betting and odds. Knowing how to determine probability and how it aligns with the bookmaker’s odds empowers you to make more educated decisions about what to bet on, when, and how much to wager. The basics of probability It's intriguing that despite daily encounters with risk assessment or problem-solving, many people are not adept at calculating probability. Questions like "What's the likelihood I'll catch the train?" or "What are the chances it will rain today?" are common, yet we seldom assign numerical values to such probabilities, despite inherently evaluating chances. Implied probability is instrumental in identifying a bookmaker's margin, a metric seldom disclosed openly. Probability ranges from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (certainty), with all other outcomes falling between these two extremes. The coin toss is an excellent example to explain probability calculation since the true probability for each outcome (heads or tails) is known, summing up to a certain event with a probability of 1. Calculating the probability for a chosen outcome, like heads in a coin toss, involves dividing the favorable outcomes by all possible outcomes, yielding a probability of 0.5. Converting this into a percentage, we find a 50% chance of the coin landing on heads. How to calculate betting odds Getting a handle on how to calculate probability yourself and converting it into odds is the first step in developing your own assessments of betting value. Once you know how to calculate probability, turning that figure into odds is a straightforward process. Decimal odds are one of the three main formats used by bettors and bookmakers alike. You can arrive at the Decimal odds value for your coin toss choice with the simple equation: 1 / probability for your chosen outcome So the Decimal odds for a coin being heads is 1 (certainty) divided by the probability of it occurring which we know is 0.5, producing decimal odds of 2.0. At this point you can equally take odds and reverse engineer the implied probability with the inverse of the equation for turning probability into odds: 1/decimal odds = probability Take your newly found knowledge and work out the implied probability for your coin toss with your friend and you'll see the aggregate implied probability of both outcomes in the coin toss is 100% - (0.5/1+0.5/1)*100 - no surprises as a certain event is 1 (100/100). However, performing the same calculation for actual odds from your favourite bookmaker will produce a value greater than 100%. So what is happening here? Calculating a bookmaker’s margin The discrepancy between the odds offered and the true likelihood of outcomes introduces the bookmaker's margin into a market. Identifying the margin is crucial for value-seeking bettors, as it reveals the true cost of a bet. Calculating a bookmaker's margin, though straightforward, is vital as it remains an opaque aspect of betting for many. While manually calculating each bet’s margin isn't necessary, tools like 7x7Bets' Margin Calculator provide a swift means to ascertain a bookmaker's applied margin. Using odds to calculate your payout Calculating odds and probability opens up a new world for calculating value but you also want to know what your bet will payout if you win. For our coin toss example this requires a simple multiplication: Your stake X decimal odds So if you bet €10 on heads with odds of 2.0 your return including stake is 2.0 x €10 which equals €20 (this includes your €10 stake + €10 profit). Being able to calculate probability and understand where odds actually come from is an essential part of evolving as a bettor because it enables you to calculate your own expected frequency for an event - starting to model your own odds - and then compare what you think will happen with what odds are available. Where the two diverge you can potentially turn that edge in your favor, and generate profit, which is what a bettor should be focused on. Now you know how do betting odds work. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- What is information overload? - A phenomenon that can harm your betting - Have you become a victim of confirmation bias? When was the last time you switched your bet from one team to another due to new insights? Not frequently? This might be because of "confirmation bias," a psychological trap that can negatively impact your betting decisions. Confirmation bias occurs when we cling to our initial beliefs, ignoring new information that contradicts them. We tend to favor evidence that supports our pre-existing views while dismissing anything that challenges them. This inclination can lead us away from making the most accurate predictions. For bettors, succumbing to confirmation bias means moving towards more subjective judgments, which is detrimental to accurately forecasting outcomes. But how can we sidestep our inherent tendency towards confirmation bias? Information overload The internet, especially Google, vividly illustrates confirmation bias. Consider a conspiracy theory you doubt, such as: We never landed on the moon. Aliens are kept in Area 51 9/11 was an inside job Search any of these topics, and you'll be met with countless arguments supporting these dubious theories. For instance, searches can yield articles with titles like “100% proof we never walked on the Moon” or exhaustive lists arguing for the presence of aliens at Area 51, not to mention “Facts Proving 9/11 Was An INSIDE JOB.” Despite encountering millions of web pages, it's likely your opinion remains unchanged. This demonstrates how hard it is to alter preconceived notions, even when faced with a mountain of contrary evidence. "We tend to favor evidence that supports our pre-existing views while dismissing anything that challenges them." This pattern repeats in betting scenarios. Bettors often validate their beliefs with supporting data while ignoring contradicting facts. For instance, many view Brazil as a top football team, despite a win rate of just 54.3% in the 36 games leading up to the 2013 Confederations Cup. A study relevant to betting, focusing on online stock trading, found that investors often seek information that confirms their existing beliefs about a stock. The study by Park et al., 2010, revealed that those most prone to confirmation bias tended to earn less profit. This bias also affects how we assess our betting performance. Wanting to believe we're successful, we might remember our wins more vividly than our losses, even if reality suggests otherwise. How to stop confirmation bias To mitigate confirmation bias, strive to objectively consider opposing viewpoints. This task is challenging, as demonstrated by the difficulty in neutrally assessing conspiracy theories. While absolute objectivity may be unattainable, making an effort to understand and value perspectives different from yours can enhance your betting acumen, leading to more informed and balanced decisions. Now you know how confirmation bias affects your betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- The bookmakers' mathematics of bookmaking - Understanding odds fluctuation - How to achieve consistent profits Every bettor dreams of outsmarting the bookmaker. However, becoming a consistently winning bettor involves more than just mastering odds calculations; understanding how bookmakers sustain their profitability is equally crucial. This exploration reveals the strategies that ensure profitability for both bookmakers and seasoned bettors alike. The concept of "making a book" refers to the process of accepting bets on various outcomes of an event. This term traces back to the era of recording bets in a hardcover ledger, which coined the term "bookmaker." Bookmakers have existed for millennia in various forms. Their function mirrors that of a stockbroker, pooling bets on different outcomes and settling with the winners post-event. For providing this service, they charge a fee or margin, aiming for profit. The mathematics of bookmaking 7x7Bets, like other online betting platforms, employs a team of experts known as traders or odds compilers. Their role is to establish odds that reflect each outcome's likelihood plus the bookmaker's margin, considering both statistical probabilities and public sentiment. Determining the odds for any event is complex. Traders consider numerous factors like team performance, player injuries, referee impact, and home advantage. They calculate the genuine probability of outcomes and then incorporate the margin. Below are the 7x7Bets’ odds for the match Leicester City vs. Norwich City on Saturday, 27th February. If you add up the probabilities, you will notice that you get 102.3%, meaning that the bookmaker has a profit margin of 2.3%, assuming balanced action on all sides. The pricing range for a match can span from 101% to 120%, influenced by the market and betting volume. Premier League games, for instance, are usually priced around 104%. Savvy bettors aim to find the best odds to maximize returns. A bookmaker's high margins translate to less favorable odds, impacting long-term profitability. It's vital to be aware of the margins your bookmaker sets. If their margins for popular markets exceed 104%, it's wise to look for a bookmaker with lower margins. For less popular markets, margins around 110% are standard. Understanding odds fluctuation Traders, unlike bettors, do not gamble on outcomes but strive to balance bets across all possible results, ensuring profit regardless of the outcome. After setting the odds, traders monitor the distribution of bets. Stable odds indicate that bets align with the traders' predictions. However, an uneven distribution prompts odds recalibration. Let's take the Leicester City vs. Norwich City match from above and assume that 100 bettors placed their $1 worth bets as follows: If Leicester wins, the bookmaker will collect $100, but will have to pay out $75*1.531 = $114.825. In this case, the software used by the traders will start to indicate a loss and the odds will be readjusted. These adjustments, aimed at maintaining balanced books, create opportunities for arbitrage betting or "sure bets." Consistent profit making Arbitrage betting involves leveraging differing odds from various bookmakers to guarantee profit, exploiting the combined margin in the bettor's favor. 7x7Bets is recognized for offering competitive margins as low as 1.5% for soccer and baseball, embracing a low-margin approach across all markets. This makes us frequently featured in arbitrage betting software. Understanding bookmakers' revenue strategies gives you an edge over average bettors. For practical insights into arbitrage betting, consider reading our comprehensive guide on arbitrage betting strategies—an essential read for aspiring professional sports bettors. Now you know how bookmakers make money. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Heuristics - Simple rules of thumb - Common types of heuristic - The Hot Hand fallacy A lot of gamblers trust their gut instinct to bet without realizing that relying on ready made rules of thumb – known in psychology as heuristics – can lead to poor decision making. Read on to find what the most common heuristics are and how to avoid them. There is a very good reason we rely on heuristics – evolution. Our distant ancestors when faced with complex life-threatening problems didn’t have time to weigh up the situation, so developed quick-fire methods. Those that worked were passed down through generations, and we are still relying on them, often when we shouldn’t. Introducing the common Heuristics Anchoring Anchoring influences our ability to accurately gauge the likelihood of specific outcomes or to estimate values in a sequence. Example: Participants are asked to estimate the proportion of African countries in the United Nations. They first see a randomly generated number (the anchor) and are queried if the actual percentage is higher or lower than this anchor. Their final guess tends to gravitate towards the anchor, despite its randomness. This tendency to cling to an arbitrary reference point, even in gambling scenarios on platforms like 7x7Bets, illustrates the anchoring effect. Bettors should be mindful of anchors in betting language, recognizing how handicaps and spread values subtly shape our decisions. Availability bias Availability bias manifests in people’s tendency to attach greater significance to events that leave the strongest impression, or are easier to recall. "From a betting perspective be wary of assigning excessive significance to more recent or memorable results'' Examples of this include the way people overestimate the risk associated with dramatic and traumatic events such as a terrorist attack or earthquakes. The sale of earthquake insurance goes up immediately after earthquakes though the risk is greatly diminished, while people are prepared to pay a higher premium to insure against death from an act of terrorism than insurance against death of any kind (which would obviously include terrorism). From a betting perspective be wary of assigning excessive significance to more recent or memorable results. Ask yourself whether you find it easier to recall a 0-0 draw or a high-scoring game. It’s likely to be the latter, but it doesn’t mean it is more probable. In soccer bettors tend to overestimate the frequency of events like red-cards and corners, because they are important and easily recalled. This impacts perceived probability and betting behavior. It is linked to a common phenomenon of bettors favoring the Over in Totals markets, as availability bias leads them to wrongly conclude the event concerned is more likely than in reality. Diversification People show a preference for more varied selections when choices are presented simultaneously rather than sequentially. Example: Given the task to pick chocolates from an assortment, people choose a wider variety when selecting all at once compared to one at a time. In betting, this leads to a tendency to spread bets across different outcomes, perceiving it as a more diversified approach. However, unless the Expected Value suggests otherwise, this diversification doesn’t inherently increase your chances of winning. Escalation of commitment or sunk cost This heuristic describes how people feel compelled to justify a commitment by increasing the cumulative investment despite the potential cost going forward outweighing the potential benefit. "People tend to believe short sequences of random events are representative of longer ones" This is commonly described as ‘throwing good money after bad’. An example would be to sit through a film that you are not enjoying just because you have already invested time and money in watching it, and therefore determined to justify that investment. From a betting perspective this can be seen when punters persist with a bet that has a high probability of incurring a large cost rather than taking a certain immediate, but smaller loss. People in these situations tend to display an irrational determination to justify their original decision, instead of ‘cutting their losses’. Representativeness, or the Gambler's Fallacy The misconception that short sequences of events can predict longer trends leads to faulty decision-making in gambling. Example: The gambler’s fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy because in 1913 black came up 26 times in a row on a roulette table at the Monte Carlo casino. After the fifteenth black bettors were piling onto red, assuming the chances of yet another black number were becoming astronomical, thereby illustrating an irrational belief that one spin somehow influences the next. This fallacy is akin to believing in winning or losing streaks, which doesn’t hold true for games of chance. Whether it’s roulette or dice games on 7x7Bets, each outcome is independent and unaffected by preceding results. It has come to be known as the Hot Hand Fallacy after a study in the 1980s suggested a basketball player who successfully makes a shot is no more likely to be successful the next time they throw just because of their initial success. This is particularly relevant in betting for random games of chance such as roulette, lotteries and dice games. Humans are not infallible; our instincts frequently lead us astray, particularly in gambling. It’s crucial to critically assess our intuitions, especially in the context of betting on online platforms like 7x7Bets. If this article has struck a chord with you, then further reading of Daniel Kahneman & (the late) Amos Tversky is highly recommended. The pair are widely credited with ground-breaking work in the field of cognitive biases and Kanheman went on to win the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, despite not being an economist. His best seller “Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow" summarizes much of his work, and will open the eyes of anyone interested in how people deal with making risk based decisions under uncertainty, which is exactly what betting is. Now you know what is the Heuristics in betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Luck and the Paradox of Skill. How to become a profitable bettor? - People and robots vs. chance: Who wins? - When does betting become a game of skill? Betting is centered around the pursuit of positive expected value to achieve steady profits. This endeavor requires gamblers to weigh the roles of randomness and fortune in the outcomes of events. This piece delves into the debate of whether becoming a profitable gambler hinges on luck or skill. Continue reading for further insights. The essence of Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks was to examine the reasons behind the profitability of some gamblers over others. Mirio Mella highlighted that certain professions, such as actuaries, financial traders, and professional gamers, might naturally lend themselves to gambling success. This piece, however, broadly investigates if success in the gambling world is a result of luck or a skill that can be cultivated. Luck and the Paradox of Skill The majority of outcomes in the gambling market are determined by chance, an unwelcome truth for many bettors. Indeed, casino offerings like roulette and craps are purely chance-based, following straightforward probability laws. But in sports betting, with its unpredictable outcome probabilities, there seems to be room for profitable strategies, right? Technically yes, as some individuals might excel in gathering and analyzing information more efficiently than others, but this advantage is practically limited to a minority due to what's known as the paradox of skill. Generally, in lower-scoring sports with more participants, luck plays a more significant role. When prediction becomes an arms race with increasingly sophisticated methodologies for forecasting sports outcomes, absolute skills might improve across the board. However, relatively, we might not advance much. Even as absolute forecasting skills enhance, the gap between the top and bottom narrows; given that gambling involves both skill and luck, with diminished variance in relative skills, luck's influence becomes more pronounced. Considering the cost of participation (the bookmaker's margin), most will likely face losses over time. Betting robots vs. Chance The football prediction service Botprediction.com demonstrates the randomness in betting by running 40,000 soccer prediction robots for the total goals market, likening them to a large cohort of bettors. “Statistically, there are always big losers and big winners in that group. Our prediction software enables you to follow those few winners with win rates above 70%” A few years back, I analyzed these robots' performance distribution over a five-week span. This is what it looked like. The outcome was akin to a random coin toss. The idea of following a high-performing robot and expecting continued success is flawed. There's no consistency in performance from one period to the next. Robot success rates merely revert to the mean, illustrating that outcomes are entirely down to chance. Real people vs. Chance Replacing robots with real individuals, one might expect a difference, as humans don't make random choices. Furthermore, I analyzed a large sample of bettors (6,044) posting picks (1,073,029 in total) on the sports betting community Pyckio.com. Using the t-score to compare betting records against market expectations based on our odds, the performance distribution was as follows. The normal distribution of betting performances points to randomness. While there are better and worse bettors, their distribution mirrors that of coin-toss decisions, despite each claiming sophisticated forecasting methods. A skilled but unfortunate poker player might still face losses after 100,000 hands, nearly two years of full-time play. Rather than being inherently good or bad, most bettors' outcomes are influenced by luck. To further illustrate, I divided the records of 249 bettors with over 1,000 picks into two halves and correlated their performances. If skill beyond luck were evident, we'd expect consistent performances. However, a scatter plot of these correlations revealed only 0.19% of variance in second-half performance could be attributed to first-half performance, indicating that nearly all variations were due to chance. This doesn't deny the presence of skilled bettors but suggests they're obscured by randomness. An R2 of 0.0019 means that just 0.19% of the variation in the second half performance of these 249 bettors could be explained by the variation in the first half performance. The implication is that all the rest is explained by chance. Collectively, these bettors were not demonstrating consistent performances; like Bot Predictions robot they were largely just regressing to the mean. This is not to argue that there were no skilled bettors at all; rather, what few there might have been were hidden amongst the noise of chance. The Luck-skill continuum Michael Mauboussin's "The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing" introduces a luck-skill continuum for various activities. Pure chance games like roulette and lotteries sit at one extreme, while skill-dominated games like chess occupy the other. Most team sports lie in between. This suggests the unpredictable nature of sports betting. Typically, lower-scoring sports with more participants see a greater influence of luck. What about gambling? Mauboussin ranks activities like investing, betting, and poker closer to the luck end, supported by the distribution of bettors' performances. The environment of skill Expertise acquisition usually follows 'Naturalistic Decision Making,' where prolonged practice and feedback help memorize and recall data patterns. This requires a stable and regular environment for predictable cause and effect. Such an environment exists for skills like playing chess or tennis, but can the same be said for sports betting? In a luck-dominated environment, focusing on decision-making processes over outcomes is crucial. The challenge in forecasting for betting is that skill doesn't merely involve choosing winners; it's about outperforming others' choices. As the paradox of skill shows, betting is a relative-skills competition. Bettors compete in a market, with success depending on evaluating whether odds reflect all available information accurately. A zero-validity environment? Validity measures whether perceived causes are true causes, and whether our assessments consistently confirm that. The analyzed sports bettors generally failed to demonstrate consistency or validity, indicating that betting markets, dominated by luck, are neither regular nor predictable. Where luck disrupts the link between skills (causes) and profits (effects), a skilled player can lose money, and an unskilled one can profit. The betting market's complexity and randomness, driven by unforeseeable news, severs the cause-effect link between a bettor's actions and their bankroll's growth. The limited scope for feedback complicates skill acquisition in betting, akin to practicing roulette. Daniel Kahneman describes betting as a zero-validity environment, highlighting the illusion of skill in perceived betting successes. When does betting become a game of skill? Perhaps the question isn't if betting is a game of skill but when it becomes one. With repetition, the influence of skill grows in activities involving luck and skill. For instance, tennis and poker demonstrate how skill emerges over numerous repetitions, distinguishing skillful players through their strategies and decisions. Over time, even with a slight advantage, the skilled bettor's success becomes evident, though it may take numerous wagers to manifest. Overcoming chance and the Paradox of Skill In nearly zero-validity betting markets with minimal skill opportunities, several strategies can enhance success chances: Bet in markets with a higher variance of skill In layman’s terms that means betting markets that are less familiar to the majority of players and the bookmaker too, with less readily available information and news to process for forecasting. The bigger the difference between the least and most skilled forecasters, the smaller the role of luck. Think relative, not absolute Where there is competition and luck, it’s only relative performance that matters. I might be able to predict 9 out of 10 Premiership results at a weekend but if the person I’m betting against can do all 10, I’ll still lose. As Nate Silver says of poker, “you can make 95% of your decisions correctly and still lose your shirt at a table full of players who are making the right move 99% of the time.” In this context, it’s also important to remember that it’s not really the bookmaker you’re trying to beat, but everyone else. Focus on the process, not the outcome When competing in an environment where luck dominates you should focus on the process of how you make your decisions, rather than the outcomes themselves. In betting, analyze the way you forecast, not the size of your bank balance. Where a lot of luck breaks the link between skills (causes) and profits (effects), a skilful player can lose money whilst an unskilled player (relatively speaking) can profit. Study the closing line It is now well established that our closing line provides one of the best measures of ‘true’ result probability. The amount you consistently beat it by will provide a very good indication of the profit you can expect to make. Consistently beating the closing line by an amount greater than our margin implies that you are sufficiently more skilled than many of your competitors. Now you know how to become a profitable bettor. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Bankroll management in betting strategy - Understanding variance - Different bankroll implications Betting strategy - Betting bankroll management and awareness of variance are crucial skills for successful online casino enthusiasts. Understanding the intricate relationship between odds, edge, and variance is vital. How do these factors influence a gambler's bankroll over time? Continue reading to discover insights into these dynamics. By grasping the expected outcomes across a range of bets, effective bankroll management aids a gambler in steering clear of cognitive biases such as Overconfidence Bias, Self-attribution Bias, and The Illusion of Skill. These biases can diminish expected profitability in the long run. This exploration delves into how odds, edge, and variance interplay, offering guidance on bankroll management for gamblers. Bankroll management For any gambler, from poker aficionados to sports betting experts, mastering bankroll management and understanding variance are indispensable. Traits shared among all adept gamblers include their knack for quantifying their advantage and attributing outcomes to luck, whether favorable or otherwise. Imagine placing a wager at odds of 2.0, which suggests a 50% likelihood (without margin). If a gambler accurately deduces that the actual probability is 52% (a true price of 1.92), then the expected gain for each wager at 2.0 would be 4% (2.0/1.92 – 1). This is referred to as the gambler's ‘edge’. Assuming a gambler begins with a bankroll of 100 units and stakes one unit per bet. After 100 such wagers, the bankroll could range from nothing to 200 units, but it's anticipated to be at 104 units—a 4% profit. Simulating this scenario 10,000 times reveals how variance impacts the gambler's bankroll, as shown in the chart below. Understanding variance While the mean result was a near-four-unit boost in bankroll, the disparity between the best (+38 units) and worst (-30 units) results is significant. It's crucial for gamblers to comprehend variance and recognize that a 4% edge doesn't assure a 4% gain. With 100 bets under this simulation, gamblers could anticipate a return between -12 and +20 units 90% of the time. A 10 unit decline from the initial bankroll is likely about 20% of the time, yet only 2% might experience a 20 unit decrease. Interestingly, in 32% of cases, gamblers might find themselves at a loss after 100 wagers, despite having a 4% edge on every bet. Enhancing the gambler's edge to 10% (true probability of 55% for a bet at 2.0) resulted in a loss 13% of the time after 100 bets. The probability of a decline of 20 units or more was merely 0.4%. Clearly, as the edge increases, the chance of a losing streak diminishes, but what occurs when the number of wagers rises to, say, 5,000? The following chart illustrates the first scenario (52% true probability, betting at odds of 2.0) simulated 10,000 times. While the most unfavorable outcome was a loss of 72 units, only 28 (0.28%) of the 10,000 simulations ended in a loss after 5,000 bets. In 90% of simulations, a return between +82 units and +314 units was produced. This illustrates a return on investment (ROI) ranging from 1.64% to 6.28%. What changes if, instead of betting at 2.0, the odds are set at 4.0 (implied probability of 25%)? If the true probability is determined to be 26% (true price of 3.846), the expected return for each bet remains at +4% (4.0/3.846-1), but how does variance react? How do the charts compare? Comparison of the two charts shows a significant increase in variance despite identical bet sizes, number of bets, and expected returns. The standard deviation of returns rose from 1.4% to 2.4%. The range of simulated outcomes is 64% larger when betting at 4.0, with a 90% confidence interval 72% wider, showcasing an ROI between 0% and 8%. In the first scenario, the gambler lost their entire 100-unit bankroll in only 2 of the 10,000 simulations (0.02%). In the latter scenario, the entire 100-unit bankroll was depleted in 6.3% of simulations. A 50-unit reduction was significantly more probable (25.7%) when betting on the 4.0 outsider compared to betting at 2.0 (2.0%). In the direst scenario betting at 4.0, nearly three whole bankrolls (-276 units) were lost. This example illustrates that with a consistent bet size, number of bets, and expected return, variance escalates as the odds increase. Therefore, a gambler primarily betting on underdogs should anticipate more significant and more frequent fluctuations in their bankroll than one betting on favorites, even if their edge remains constant. Considering it might take years for a sports bettor to place 5,000 wagers, it's more pertinent to understand the bankroll implications when making a considerably lower number of bets. Assuming a gambler finds a 4% edge at odds of 2.0 and stakes a fixed 1 unit, the chart below depicts the likelihood of experiencing a specific unit reduction from the starting bankroll over a range of 100 to 1,000 bets, based on 10,000 simulations. Placing 1,000 bets at odds of 2.0 with a 4% edge, the probability of encountering a particular reduction seems to be nearing its maximum, particularly for smaller decreases. As the gambler's edge grows, the likelihood of a certain reduction diminishes. The following chart maps this probability across 1,000 wagers at odds of 2.0, based on 10,000 simulations. For instance, with a 4% edge, the probability of a 20-unit reduction during 1,000 bets at 2.0 was 17.4%. Nonetheless, the chance of being down by 20 units or more after 1,000 such bets was only 2.8%. Understanding this distinction ensures a gambler can look beyond short-term variance towards their long-term advantage. Different bankroll implications What are the bankroll implications if the bet size and edge remain constant, but the odds vary? The chart below outlines the probability of various reductions (from the starting bankroll) when a gambler places 1,000 1-unit bets at different odds, with a 4% edge. Each series of 1,000 bets was simulated 10,000 times. Remember, when betting at odds of 2.0, there was a 17.4% chance of being down by 20 units at some point through a series of 1,000 bets. At odds of 5.0, the likelihood of a 20-unit reduction increases to just under 60%. With the same stake, edge, and expected return from a series of bets, predominantly backing favorites or longshots leads to markedly different bankroll implications in terms of variance. Therefore, recognizing what type of gambler you are is essential for managing the inevitable ups and downs you'll encounter. To quantify this variance, consider once more a series of 1,000 bets. By altering the odds (implied probability from 10% to 90%) and edge, the chart below illustrates the standard deviation of returns. It's evident that variance escalates as the odds increase (or as implied probability decreases), consistent with the analysis above. From the chart, making 1,000 1-unit bets with a 10% edge results in a standard deviation of 6.5% if all bets are placed at 5.0, compared to 2.5% when betting at 1.67. In both instances, the expected return is +100 units (+10%). An intriguing finding is that for odds shorter than 2.0, as the edge (and thus expected return) increases, standard deviation actually diminishes. Finding an increasing edge with odds shorter than 2.0 is beneficial not only due to the higher expected return but also because it comes with reduced variance. Summaries to be drawn from the data This article has scrutinized the interrelations between odds, edge, and variance through simulating a series of bets with a positive edge. While a larger edge and increased number of bets enhance the likelihood of overcoming a spell of bad luck, it's crucial for sports gamblers to recognize their gambling style and quantify their edge accurately. This knowledge enables them to avoid discouragement during losing streaks or falling prey to overconfidence biases when on a winning streak. While a gambler may not know their exact edge at the moment of placing each bet, previous discussions have highlighted the importance of using our closing price as an indicator of the true price. Consistently outperforming the closing price indicates that a gambler is likely to achieve a positive long-term return. However, if a gambler consistently profits at our closing prices, it might indicate an inefficiency in the market that has not been accounted for. 7x7Bets' policy of welcoming winners ensures that an edge remains accessible to any gambler as long as it exists. Now you know what is the bankroll management and understand what is the odds, edge and variance. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!

- Understanding the betting dynamics - The limited role of personal opinion - The significance of relative measurement - The pivotal role of data. Learn how to use data There are millions of individuals globally engaged in betting regularly. Many engage in betting for enjoyment, while others, who approach betting with seriousness, see it as a pathway to earning a living. There are also those who fall in the middle, believing they are serious about betting without fully grasping its implications. Are you committed to betting? Continue reading to discover more. Betting does not adhere to a singular correct approach, yet if your betting is driven by specific goals, like generating consistent profits, it necessitates a commitment of time and resources towards these pursuits, underscoring a “serious” mindset towards your activities. This discussion will explore the evolution from casual betting to adopting a professional attitude towards it. Understanding the betting dynamics Embarking on the path to becoming a dedicated bettor starts with a thorough comprehension of betting mechanics and recognizing the challenge involved in profiting from betting. Before you can strategize on outsmarting the market, understanding its workings is essential. Betting is often perceived as a competition between the bettor and the bookmaker, where you utilize available resources to predict outcomes, placing bets based on the bookmaker's odds for a correct prediction. Success results in a payout from the bookmaker, while incorrect guesses lead to a loss of your stake. However, betting encompasses much more, involving bettor versus bettor scenarios, with the bookmaker facilitating and taking a commission - this commission is reflected in their margin. The margin indicates a discrepancy, favoring the bookmaker, between the odds' implied probability and the actual statistical likelihood of an event's outcome. The aggregate probability of possible outcomes for any event should always equal 100%. However, converting a bookmaker’s odds into a percentage often exceeds 100%, indicating the bookmaker’s margin. Higher margins on odds complicate finding valuable bets for consistent profits. Another common misconception is the belief that bookmakers solely dictate the odds. Although bookmakers set initial odds, subsequent adjustments are influenced by monetary flows and market sentiment. Bookmakers aim to adjust odds to ensure profit or position themselves for maximal gains. Serious bettors understand their role in consistently outpredicting the market on event outcomes. Making accurate predictions is challenging, but recognizing value in these predictions is crucial before placing bets. Analyzing odds, comparing margins, and seeking the best value are essential practices for committed bettors. The limited role of personal opinion Overvaluing one's opinion, despite being informed or well-researched, is a common oversight among bettors. As involvement in betting increases, acknowledging the fallibility of predictions becomes crucial. Serious betting necessitates detachment from both bets and outcomes. Considering the resources available to bookmakers for setting initial odds, plus the influence of other bettors' money and information, surpassing the market based solely on personal insight is unlikely. Consistently profiting from betting requires an edge over the market, understanding how this advantage is generated, and knowing its optimal application. Moreover, accepting the inevitability of incorrect predictions is part of the serious bettor's mindset. They understand their required win rate for profitability and view losses as opportunities for analysis and improvement. The significance of relative measurement Considering a hypothetical scenario with Bettor A placing €50,000 and Bettor B placing €500, serious betting cannot be judged merely by absolute stakes. Instead, considerations of relative value and adherence to a calculated strategy based on an identified advantage and overall bankroll management are what define a serious bettor. Absolute figures are less informative than relative measurements in betting. Serious bettors focus on percentages relative to their total betting capital over various time frames, emphasizing the importance of perspective over raw monetary values. This perspective allows serious bettors to make decisions unswayed by the outcomes of individual bets. The pivotal role of data. Learn how to use data Distinguishing between luck and skill in betting success is a critical inquiry for serious bettors. While casual bettors may not ponder this distinction, assuming outcomes are always a result of skill, the real measure of betting expertise lies in the comparison of bet odds to closing line odds. Tracking bet results, including wins, losses, and return on investment (ROI), becomes a fundamental aspect of professional betting. Analyzing bet odds against market closing odds offers insights into the efficacy of value betting. Success in betting hinges not solely on immediate outcomes but on the consistent placement of bets with positive expected value, indicative of skilled betting practices. Recognizing the influence of randomness in betting outcomes is crucial for serious bettors, who understand the necessity of embracing both skill and luck in their betting endeavors. 7x7Bets brings these insights and strategies to the forefront, offering bettors a comprehensive guide to transitioning from casual to serious betting, emphasizing the importance of knowledge, analysis, and a disciplined approach to achieving consistent betting success. Now you learn how to use data and know some basic rules of betting. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!